The 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs have concluded with the Colorado Avalanche hoisting their first Stanley Cup since 2001. The end to another year of exciting playoff hockey means only one thing, that the fun of the offseason can begin.
For the first time in probably a decade, the Sabres head into the offseason with a small list of holes to fill. Those needs are by no means minuscule, but instead of once again having the need to overhaul parts of the team, Kevyn Adams just has to dip into the Sabres' money and asset surpluses to plug some notable holes.
Lucky for us, the Sabres head into the offseason with quite the amount of cap space, so having the ability to make necessary additions should be well within their power. So let's break down what to look for over the upcoming summer.
Housekeeping Items
There are a few internal matters that have to be dealt with first before addressing the rest of the roster.
Most importantly, that will have to do with the contract of Victor Olofsson. The soon-to-be 27-year-old is an RFA who is due for his first big pay raise this summer. Olofsson's contract is such a curious case because the perception of his future with the team has flip-flopped multiple times over the past 12 months.
Through the first 10 games of this past season, Olofsson was arguably the Sabres best player, adding whole new dimensions to his one-sided game. However, it wasn't too long after that he would suffer an injury to his wrist that would put him out of action. Even though he returned a short time later, the injury continued to linger, culminating in a 31-game goal-less drought that was as dreadful as it sounds.
By the time he potted his next goal, he was quickly becoming the favorite to be dealt at the trade deadline. Fortunate for him, Adams would stick to his guns and back him up, allowing for Olofsson to try and bounce back for the remainder of the season. Lucky for Adams, that's exactly what happened. Olofsson would finally return to full health and get his shot back, scoring 13 goals in his last 28 games and eclipsing the 20-goal mark, despite the struggles he had earlier in the year.
This rollercoaster of play has made his contract situation and long-term status with the team all the more interesting. While it may not feel like it since he's only been with the Sabres for three seasons, Olofsson is already going to be 27 by the time next season starts, so it's not a situation where you'd want to lock him up for 6 or 7 years. Preferably, it'd be something short-term where there's not a lot of commitment.
Despite his his current age, with his strong finish to the season I don't think it's unreasonable to say the consensus in the fanbase was that the Sabres would most likely keep him. His shot is one of a kind, and he showed towards the end of the season of having a more dynamic game. However, we recently got some inside scoop on what the Sabres' current mindset is for his future with the team, courtesy of Chad DeDominicis of Expected Buffalo.
"If the Sabres can find a move that makes sense for them that he’d be dealt this offseason.
If they can’t, they’ll keep him on what would likely be a one-year deal and see if another opportunity presents itself in the future. Olofsson can become an unrestricted free agent after next season and it seems evident that they don’t see him as part of their long-term plans.
...This doesn’t mean the Olofsson will definitely be moved this offseason, but they’re willing to use him as an asset to improve their roster if they find a trade they like."
- Chad DeDominicis
Surprisingly, it does seem that the Sabres are looking to explore a trade, as long as it makes sense for the team. It appears that the organization believes Olofsson's production could be matched by Jack Quinn and/or JJ Peterka at a fraction of the price.
Another point that was brought up by Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts Podcast, as well as Chad also, was the Sabres' hesitation when it comes to taking Olofsson to arbitration. It looks as if they are nervous when it comes to what the price will be after the whole process.
“There are a few cases around the league of QO’s. One is Strome, Kasperi Kapanen in Pittsburgh is another, Ethan Bear is another, I’ve wondered about Buffalo and Victor Olofsson. There’s a few players around the league where if you look at their qualifying offers you’re kinda wondering what are these teams going to do?”
- Elliotte Friedman
Money shouldn't really be an issue for a team that's struggling to hit the cap floor, and I personally think he'll receive around $4.5 - $5 million, but you never know exactly what the Olofsson camp is thinking and how an arbitrator would react should this case make it to arbitration. Olofsson's play during the start, middle, and end of the season could making for an interesting process.
Adams has some other RFA's that will need to be signed (Jacob Bryson, Brett Murray, and Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen), but none are as thought provoking as Olofsson will be.
The other housekeeping item that I want to address is the status of one prospect. As we know, some have decided to return to school such as Erik Portillo and Devon Levi, while quite a few others have decided to sign with the team like Josh Bloom, Alexander Kisakov, Oliver Nadeau, Isak Rosén, and Filip Cederqvist. However, the one prospect that is still in limbo as to what he will do next year is Ryan Johnson.
Johnson's Minnesota Golden Gophers came up short in the NCAA Championship this past season, which has caused a mixed reaction among many of Johnson's teammates about what course to take next year.
Some such as Brock Faber, Matthew Knies, and Jackson LaCombe have decided to return for next season, while Ben Meyers and Marc McLaughlin have decide to jump to the big leagues and sign with the Avalanche & Bruins respectively. As of right now, Johnson is still currently making his own decision.
However, it seems as if he's communicated with Kevyn Adams that he has interest in returning for another year at Minnesota, which makes sense considering the amount of players returning, along with the arrival of a talent like Logan Cooley. It should give Minnesota another good chance to avenge last year and win the National Championship. Now, this can always change before the start of next season, but this is the way things look.
What Adams will more importantly have to decide is if he feels that Johnson will actually end up signing with the team after the conclusion of the college season. His rights with the Sabres are up in August of 2023, so should he feel like it, Johnson can walk and sign any team he wants to.
Buffalo would receive a compensatory 2nd round pick in 2023, the condition being that the 2nd round pick rewarded is equal to where Johnson was selected in the 1st round back in 2019. So, because he was selected with the final pick of the 1st round, the Sabres would be given the final pick of the 2nd round or 64th overall.
The hesitation from Johnson in making a decision does lead me to believe he has interest in playing for the Buffalo Sabres, but Adams must always be prepared for the worst case scenario. I believe it's important to highlight this current scenario because I feel that it could very well be resolved this offseason, as in Johnson being a piece of a bigger trade should he imply that he has plans to play elsewhere.
2022 NHL Draft
For the first time since 1983, the Buffalo Sabres are primed to make three selections in the 1st round of the draft. Two of those picks are slotted in the top 16, one being the Sabres own 9th overall pick and the other being the beloved Vegas Golden Knights' 16th overall pick. The third pick is slotted to be at #28 thanks to the Sam Reinhart trade with the Florida Panthers.
As last season moved forward, it seemed the draft consensus kept on shifting. It was no secret that prior to the season many fans believed we were primed to be in the Shane Wright sweepstakes, but then that soon transitioned to being in the running for the big two right-handed defenseman in the draft in Simon Nemec or David Jiricek, and then finally shifting to a much more unpredictable landscape of having possibly 10 different guys that could be sought after.
With the strong close to the year, the Sabres have likely priced themselves out of the higher end prizes of the draft and instead have more interesting decisions to make when it comes to making their picks at #9 and #16.
Most likely, the Sabres will go forward at both picks, the defensive selection just isn't that plentiful in the mid-1st round range.
For Kevyn Adams, it really depends on how the board falls come draft day. Barring a major turn of events, the Sabres will have the opportunity of selecting players such as Brad Lambert, Joakim Kemell, Frank Nazar, Rutger McGroarty, Jonathan Lekkerimaki; and each of them all have some serious upside depending on what the team is looking for. However, given how many scouts are saying that this draft could be one of the most unpredictable ever, Adams might have the opportunity of selecting a major dropper (say Matthew Savoie).
Whatever the case may be, Adams and his team will be adding a large group of youth to an already healthy pipeline after this draft, and that's a very exciting thing. We'll save more of our own draft thoughts when we release our official draft guide prior to the draft, so stay tuned.
Filling the Holes
The way that Adams approaches the remainder of the roster this year will certainly be a lot different than years past. Instead of having to focus on a seemingly endless amount of weaknesses on the team, the Sabres (for the most part) have their spots filled for next season.
Forwards
We'll start with the area that will probably be tinkered with the less.
As of right now, chances are that the Sabres forward group for the 2022-23 is pretty much set in stone. Barring the aforementioned Olofsson trade, it's hard to argue that the 12-man forward group isn't going to be made up of Thompson, Tuch, Skinner, Cozens, Krebs, Olofsson, Mittelstadt, Asplund, Quinn, Peterka, Okposo, and Girgensons. Not to mention, the internal competition that will exist with guys like Bjork, Ruotsalainen, Murray, Biro, etc.
There's really not a forward spot available as it stands right now without removing someone from the lineup. You might argue that Okposo and Girgensons are the first two candidates to be sat, and while you might be right eventually, but those two have earned their spots to start.
Not only was their play on the ice last season good enough to warrant protection, but they clearly meant a lot to the team off the ice. Let's not forget that they were named as the only two captains to start the season back in October. This could become even more apparent with Okposo, should he be named captain.
Now, this situation could change in a few ways as the season goes on. First and foremost, if their play drops off, then yes, they should probably be the first two to be sat for the younger guys. Then, there's the fact that both players are UFAs at then end of next season, so they could possibly be traded prior to or at the trade deadline. It will be an interesting situation to monitor when the season begins.
However, that's not to say Kevyn Adams won't try to add a forward at all via trade or free agency. I'm sure that we'll see some type of addition as the season nears.
When it comes to free agency, I don't expect to go after guys like Johnny Gaudreau, Filip Forsberg, or Nazem Kadri, but it wouldn't surprise me to see some effort to be made to add some sort quality player.
Some names that come to mind if they want to go high quality, but not superstar level, are Andre Burakovsky, Valeri Nichushkin, Andrew Copp, and Nino Niederreiter. All would be very nice pieces to add to the middle and top-six.
However, I still wouldn't see additions like that occurring unless one or both of Mittelstadt and Olofsson are moved in the coming months, and like we said, I don't think that occurs.
When it comes to trades, it's the same principle. I highly doubt that the Sabres tackle the high-priced guys this offseason like Pierre Luc Dubois, Kevin Fiala, or Alex DeBrincat. Dubois and Fiala are both RFA's, so possibly there's an outside chance they are pursued, but I'd still bet that Adams stays away from those bidding wars.
So instead of a marquee addition, expect to see a much more low key move(s). It would be somewhat reminiscent of how the Sabres acquired undervalued guys to fill out the roster last season (Hinostroza, Pysyk, etc.). I'd expect an addition like that to fill in the bottom-six, more specifically, fourth line center.
With the departure of Cody Eakin, the Sabres don't have a set player to fill that role. Girgensons could do it, and he did fairly well during the season when he was put there, but I could see Adams going after a guy in free agency or trade to solidify that spot. Think Johan Larsson, Nick Paul, or Teddy Blueger.
Nonetheless, it will be hard to resist the urge to stay out of major player movement, so we'll just have to see how Adams reacts to the moving pieces around him.
Defense
This is where things get more interesting.
Prior to the deadline, it was circulating that Kevyn Adams was looking to acquire a veteran right-handed defenseman that could play with Owen Power. However, when no trades with a player of that caliber ended up happening, the Sabres decided to slot in Henri Jokiharju as Power's partner when he arrived and it went quite well.
After a very sluggish year for Jokiharju, it was nice to see him rebound and develop some chemistry with Power, but preferably the Sabres will still go out and get a veteran defenseman in free agency or via trade, whether they be right-handed or not.
I'm sure the one name that immediately comes to mind is PK Subban.
Ever since Malcolm sang the National Anthem before the last game of the season, it's just felt like this move progressively became more and more possible. It just kinda made sense considering where he was in his career, the position he played, and the fact that his brother was quickly becoming a fan favorite.
Fuel was added to the fire when Chad DeDominicis once again came out and said that should he hit the market, the Sabres intend to go after him.
Subban checks all the boxes: he's right-handed, he's a veteran, he's a pure vibes guy, and he's still good, most importantly. After a rough first two seasons in New Jersey, Subban had a very nice resurgence this season. His impacts dramatically improved, and showed that he isn't as washed up as some might think.
Some other high end guys in free agency are Letang and Klingberg. However, I doubt that they are considered. Letang is gonna likely end up going to a team that can offer him a spot as their top defenseman and as their top PP quarterback, which is something that the Sabres just can't do anymore with Dahlin and Power cementing themselves in our lineup. Klingberg on the other hand, doesn't make much sense at all. He's already 30, and is likely going to be asking for a high AAV and a longer term deal. He's struggled a lot in recent years on Dallas, and would be a huge risk for the Sabres to sign, especially considering he'd be in a more limited role here.
On the trade market, there's definitely some interesting trade options, such as Connor Murphy, John Marino, Radko Gudas, and Scott Mayfield. All would be good options to help cement one of the best up and coming defensive cores in the NHL.
Whatever road that Adams does take for the defense will depend on what he prefers to spend: money or assets?
Goaltender
This area of improvement will surely be the focus of most of the offseason. More than any other area, it's a clear need. Last season's carousel of fringe goaltenders can't continue. They NEED to find a bonafide starter that can be looked at night in and night out as someone to rely on.
We are still currently awaiting Craig Anderson's decision on whether or not he will continue to play next season. Should he decide to play, it should not alter the course of how the offseason should play out. Anderson will not be able to carry a starter's load, and might not even be able to take the 25 game load should he be the back-up. No matter what his decision is, I believe the plan should still be to attain a quality starting goalie.
A minority might be thinking that Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen might be an in-house answer for the goaltender woes, but to that I say no. UPL could very well end up being the goalie of the future here in Buffalo, but next year shouldn't be looked at as the year he takes that sort of step in development.
This past season, he played a career high in NHL games with a whopping total of... 9. The plan cannot be in any scenario to have him slotted in as the starter, he's hardly dipped his toe into the NHL world.
If you think his NHL total is low, just look at his AHL track record. Despite being a part of the Amerks roster at points for the last 4 seasons, his highest number of games played was this past season with 35. The numerous injuries have been a huge roadblock for the past five years, and it's not something that can be ignored when addressing his role next season.
If you're relying on him to carry the starter's workload next year, that's a plan that's going to end badly. He should only be penned to be your #2 guy to start the season. Even then, I would argue that there should be some other competition to challenge him (perhaps Subban or someone else).
When it comes to free agency, the options are certainly plentiful. The biggest headliners of the class are Darcy Kuemper (should the Avalanche not resign him), Marc-Andre Fleury, and Jack Campbell. Luckily for us, the Sabres are reportedly showing interest in at least one of the three.
Along with the message that the Sabres were interested in PK Subban, Chad relayed that the Sabres main goalie target going into free agency was Jack Campbell. He's been very solid with the Leafs ever since being acquired there, so I would more than happy if the Sabres were somehow able to land him.
Chris Johnston reported a few weeks back that Campbell's camp wanted $5 million from the Leafs, but they were unable to give him that because of their current cap situation. If you can get Campbell to no more than $6.5 million for 3 years, then that would be a great fit in my opinion. Any higher or longer and I think you have to look elsewhere.
However, considering he's one of the big three, we have to be prepared should that option not work out. A lot of the other goalies in the upcoming free agent class are tweeners that may or may not work out should they be signed. Think Brayden Holtby, Ville Husso, Thomas Greiss, Casey DeSmith, and David Rittich. These guys provide some potential upside, but none are really that bonafide guy that the Sabres should be looking for.
On the trade market, there's some interesting options to explore as well. One of the biggest names on the market is John Gibson, who has been the subject of trade talk over the past few seasons. He hasn't quite lived up to the hype since 2019, but there have been stretches where he's recaptured that elite performance. Unfortunately, his contract (5 years x $6.4 million) makes me shy away from taking that chance on him. There's no guarantee that he can rekindle that high-end performance.
Another vet that could fit the bill is Semyon Varlomov. With the New York Islanders needing to sign Noah Dobson and add some valuable pieces in order to get the team contending for the cup again, they are going to need to shed some unwanted salary. One cap causality to take advantage of could be Varlomov. With Ilya Sorokin becoming the team's netminder of the future, paying $5 million for a backup isn't exactly ideal for the Isles, so the Sabres could swoop in and get a veteran starting goalie for a relatively low price.
Some other goalies that could be shed due to salary concerns could include Matt Murray, Petr Mrazek, Jake Allen, and James Reimer.
There isn't any shortage of opportunity for Kevyn Adams to acquire a goalie that can help the Sabres next season. He just needs to be smart in who he chases after, as you don't want to create a situation where guys like UPL, Levi, and/or Portillo are blocked from being able to have a chance.
Final Thoughts
Heading into this offseason, I don't really know what to expect from Kevyn Adams. My gut tells me that he's going to stick to his guns and let next season play out with the current kids they have, but my brain tells me that the front office is smarter than to just stand pat while some potential big names are out there to get for possibly the right cost.
Whatever the case, it's going to be a breath of fresh air to head into the coming months with full faith in the management group. No matter the course they take, I believe that it is somehow a part of their plan for the future of this franchise and will work out in the end. This group has earned that much over the past year.
So here's to a fun offseason ahead.
Go Sabres.
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