With the recent conclusion of the Eichel saga, the focus of the franchise has been placed onto the future. This season has been great in that regard, as Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, Krebs, Power, Portillo, and Levi are the young guns that have been thriving so far. Along with the pleasant surprises on the main roster like Thompson, Asplund, Skinner, and Olofsson; the Sabres are off to a real optimistic start to the rebuild.
However, there is one player that has been met with some rather big disappointment. That would be Rasmus Dahlin. Flashback to last season after Ralph Krueger had been let go and Dahlin seemed to have taken a huge step in his development under Don Granato. The second half of the season appeared to signify a breakout of sorts for the young swede.
With this positive development, expectations for Dahlin coming into this season were raised. The trend of sluggish starts to the previous two seasons under Krueger could not continue, we needed an improvement that started from game one. Instead, we have unfortunately been treated with yet another slow start from Dahlin, something we all said couldn't happen again.
This model from @JFreshHockey shows Dahlin's regression from last season so far. Something to keep in mind is that this model takes into account all the games from last year as well when updating the current numbers. So, Dahlin's numbers likely look a lot worse if we were to take the numbers from just this season.
While this year's start hasn't been as bad as the previous two years under Ralph Krueger, many fans have begun to worry that Dahlin hasn't taken that next step in his development. His time with Butcher was his lowlight of the season so far, putting many of his issues on display.
Some have even begun to consider the possibility of trading him. While I don't think we are quite to that point yet, Dahlin needs to show signs of progress soon or else the questions are only going to continue to be asked. Especially now that the Jack Eichel has been traded, Dahlin is now the main focus of the fanbase.
The way that I've tried to explain the root of these issues is that going through Krueger's system the previous two seasons has caused some real serious damage to his development path. That "killer instinct" that was visible his rookie season has dissipated, and many negative tendencies have replaced it.
Offensively, it seems like he's holding back form displaying any real creativity. Defensively, he looks completely unsure of himself, which I think is contributing to hesitating offensively.
When Dahlin was going through his struggles last season, we could all place the blame on Krueger, but now that's not the case. Dahlin has zero excuses; Krueger is gone and Granato's system encourages his style of play, so the only way that Dahlin gets himself out of his slump is by himself.
So the question has to be asked, what is Dahlin's problem?
Well there's a few answers to that, but just talking about them won't do it justice. Some film-based breakdown is required to truly get understand where Dahlin is going wrong with his game. So let's get straight into it.
Defensive Awareness
We'll start off with the most glaring issue of Dahlin's game.
He was never talked about as a defensive specialist, which is expected considering he played forward for half his life, but his defensive play this season has abysmal. His deficiencies have been put on display more than ever.
At times, his decision-making can be a tad too slow. It's like he's deciding in slow motion in his head what to do when presented with a given situation.
When Eberle clearly gets the step on Dahlin, it takes way too long to make his decision. By the time he does, Eberle has enough time and space to wind up and get the shot through Tokarski for the goal. You can see that Dahlin just barely misses getting a piece of Eberle's stick, so had he made that decision a bit quicker, a crucial goal may have been stopped.
Then, there's the occasional mental lapse where Dahlin will make you scratch your head at a decision he decides to make.
Finally, there's the most glaring problem that's been seen a lot early . It's cooled off ever since he's been put with Pysyk, but for more than a few consecutive games Dahlin was constantly being dangled.
Something that all these clips have in common is that Dahlin is on the right side (his off-hand) which is a position he found himself in often when with Butcher. Even though his time with Butcher is up, he definitely still needs to address this problem, this is not something that can happen to an NHL defenseman, let alone a franchise one, on a constant basis.
The good news is Dahlin is aware that's an issue. And so far, this hasn't happened since.
Let's try to slow it down ourselves and see exactly where he's going wrong.
Mistake #1: When Hertl approaches Dahlin, Rasmus eyes are go straight to the puck. One he looks at it, he never diverges his attention from it, immediately setting him up for failure. Dahlin needs to get his eyes off the puck and onto Hertl's chest to read the toe drag. He can still poke it away if he wants, but watching Hertl instead keeps him square and locks up the inside.
Mistake #2: When Dahlin decides to go for the poke check, it's way too early. His stick placement attempts to force Hertl to the outside, but telegraphs that he is shifting his stride towards the boards anticipating an outside drive by Hertl. The inside side gap is opened right up between the hashmarks, leading to an easy dangle that a player as talented as Hertl is going to make in his sleep.
Mistake #3: Dahlin doesn't use his body to close any gap. This can apply to every single time that Dahlin has attempted to defend a rush such as this. He always goes for the poke check, to the point that it's the only obstacle that the forward has to get through to beat Dahlin.
You have to wonder why he does this. I think this tweet brings up a good point about why Dahlin may be approaching these situations as such.
It's like Dahlin has no interest in lining up a player at all, he just wants to go for the puck which is causing him to get caught with his puck watching.
Here's a fun flashback. Remember when Rasmus absolutely demolished Matej Pekar at training camp in 2018?
Pekar attempts the very same move that Dahlin has been getting burned on so much. Sure, it's not with the same speed that Dahlin has had to face or in the same situation since Dahlin and Pekar are skating towards one another, but it's the same idea. Pekar attempts to cut middle with a toe drag and Dahlin cuts him off perfectly, laying him out on the ice.
Now I don't need him to lay opponents out on a nightly basis, but using the body to separate the player from the puck is something Dahlin has completely abandoned and is a primary factor as to why he's getting beat so easily.
All he has to do is look at teammate Jacob Bryson who is having a phenomenal start to the year. Bryson, like Dahlin, is a guy who is seen as being mostly an offensive defenseman. However, he hasn't ever gotten beat like Dahlin has and it's pretty simple why.
Just in case you need a reminder, that's Connor McDavid coming full speed at Bryson and Miller. While it's technically starts as a 1v2, Miller loses a step at the blue line and McDavid essentially turns it into a 1v1 with Bryson.
Instead of puck watching, Bryson keeps his eyes directly onto McDavid's chest. When he tries to split Bryson and Miller, Bryson uses his edge work to effectively crossover and position himself to use his body to force McDavid off the puck. All McDavid can do at that point is get a weak shot off.
This is how you use the body when defending. Even when you're 5' 10'' going against the best player in the entire world, keeping your eyes on the chest and off the puck is how to effectively defend. Hopefully, Dahlin can get away from his puck watching.
Offensive Awareness
While I can live with the defensive lapses, the lack of offense is what's most concerning to me. Dahlin needs to still be contributing offensively, otherwise he's no more valuable than any other defenseman on the team.
Reluctancy to Rush the Puck
One part of his game that's been most frustrating this season is his hesitation to rush the puck up ice into the zone. It's seems like at times he just can't wait to get the puck off his stick.
Both clips here present that hesitancy. In both examples, Dahlin does the right thing and rushes forward with the puck towards the zone. However, for some reason ends up dumping it into the zone instead.
Not only did the Kraken and Red Wings give Dahlin space to work his way into the zone, but all other Sabres forwards are stagnant at the blue line, so it makes no sense to dump it. When the puck is rimmed, they have no momentum to chase it, leading to an easy clear..
When Dahlin actually does build up the confidence to rush the puck, often times it results in him taking it wide and never threatening the middle of the ice. He'll just stop and turn outside, looking for a trailer.
Sometimes it might not hurt to be conservative, but not every time. At some point, you have to try and create something, especially if they're giving you a lane to the net.
Back to his Roots
I can continue to give examples of where Dahlin is going wrong (which I still am), but I think a fun, yet eye-opening way to get a sense of what's going wrong is to flashback to Dahlin's rookie season. Specifically, one game where most of these points I'm bringing up were non-issues.
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the best game of Rasmus Dahlin's NHL Career. November 17th, 2018 vs. Minnesota Wild.
This was as close to a perfect game as you are ever going to get from Dahlin. His vision, hands, speed, and overall hockey IQ were on full display here. He was constantly a factor in the offensive zone, with a few nice defensive plays as well, which everything you want from a first overall pick.
The numbers back the eye test as well. Rasmus finished with a 57.89 CF% and 65.22 xGF%.
Solid Defensive Play
Even in what I think is the best game of his career, his defensive play isn't going to blow you away, but it's simple and gets the job done.
Dahlin attempts to get aggressive with a pinch, but the put is able to be moved past him to start a 2 on 1. He attempts to get back to pick up the open man, but Okposo beats him to the man so Dahlin takes away the trailer in the slot.
He reads it perfectly and is able to intercept the pass of Future Sabres Legend Eric Staal. Then, he immediately feeds Conor Sheary a beautiful saucer pass to spring a semi-breakaway. Again, his play seemed so calm and almost effortless, even when he was in trouble.
This play here is a thing of beauty. Dahlin sets up behind the net for the breakout. Sobotka cuts through the middle, and Dahlin is able to perfectly tear apart the Wild's 1-2-2 forechecking, giving Sobotka a perfect setup to attack the offensive zone with speed.
Speed on the Rush
One of the most immediate differences you see out of Dahlin is how eager he is to leave the defensive zone with speed and join the rush. Every time he sees the puck being broken out, he attempts to join as the fourth forward.
These clips showcase this perfectly. The moment Dahlin sees a clean breakout forming, he takes off with speed through the neutral zone. Had he been given the puck in either scenario, Dahlin would've been able to continue with tons of speed and momentum going into the zone.
By the end of the second clip, that "4th forward" idea is cemented, since all of Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, and Dahlin are traveling forward through the zone with speed.
Too many times now he seems reluctant to catch up with the forwards and hesitates. And even when does decide to open himself up for the pass out of the defensive zone, it's too slow and doesn't have enough speed to really make an impact.
Offense from the Blue Line
At this point, whenever Dahlin does get the puck in the O-Zone, it can often be just a point shot or a rim back down into the corner, with no attempt at creating anything. That opportunity is not always there, but now it seems as if Dahlin doesn't want to try anything. Flashback to 3 years ago and we can look at what he did that was effective.
This clip shows off his high offensive awareness. Dahlin starts out in the high slot ready if pass were to get to him from Larsson, but as the puck shoots back out to Bogosian he travels along side the puck, timing it so that once it gets to Bogosian he can start to move towards the boards to with speed to prepare for a pass.
It's a subtle difference, but timing it perfectly with the creation of that extra momentum really helps, which you'll see used more effectively in the next clip.
When Bogosian takes the shot and the puck goes wide, Dahlin makes a good read and is able to intercept the clearing attempt. He then proceeds to outwork two Wild players and dish the puck to Girgensons, then heading backdoor for a possible pass.
All of this happens in just 15 seconds, but shows how dangerous Dahlin was in the zone. Now I don't expect him to dangle multiple players in a shift every game, but this type of swagger isn't seen from him anymore.
This shift is a great example of how that pivot at the blue line is a weapon. As Dahlin slides across the line and accepts the pass from Bogosian, it opens up space for him to work. By receiving the puck with that little extra speed & momentum, he is able to fool Granlund and move down the wall, nearly finding Larsson in front for a tap-in goal.
Walking the line with speed opens things up for Dahlin. He can either move down the wall like this or cut middle if the defender cheats outside and gives it to him.
Here's another clip from his rookie season that demonstrates this:
As soon as Dahlin hands it off to Bogosian, he immediately starts building momentum the other way. When he gets the pass back, he makes a smooth head fake and is able to walk in a for a quality chance.
Just for reference, let's see how Dahlin can sometimes seem stagnant at the line.
When the puck comes up the wall here to Bjork, Dahlin pivots towards the inside part of the zone instead of outside the blue line in the previous clip. This results in Dahlin skating backwards in a straight line towards the boards, which makes it very easy for Merkley to defend. All he has to do is force Dahlin horizontally to the boards to take a relatively weak point shot.
This happens way too much now. Sometimes, Dahlin is just not moving when he receives the point-to-point pass which limits his options even more. By pivoting back towards the blue line, Dahlin makes it harder to guess what he's going to do, and therefore, harder to defend against.
Offensive Positioning
That "4th forward" idea wasn't just an a term used to describe Dahlin when in transition or when he would rush the puck up ice. Dahlin often established himself as one in the offensive zone quite often too.
Here, as the play turns into a scrum in front of the net, all the Wild defenders collapse to try and keep the Sabres forwards out, but what they don't see is Dahlin creeping down himself. He sees that if a puck squirts out he can be there, and that's exactly what happens. Dahlin pokes the loose puck home and ties the game.
Sometimes, it can seem like Dahlin is hesitating to get below the hashmarks in the offensive zone now. It's like he's afraid the puck being rushed the other way if there's a turnover.
The whole left side is why open, yet you can see Dahlin remaining at the blue line. This is exactly where he should be dropping down and looking for a pass.
Attacking the Middle/Slot
One thing that you rarely ever see Dahlin do now at all is try to cut to the middle offensively. Every time he has the puck he usually turns outside and looks for another option. Sometimes it's the right decision, but other times he clearly could've tried to attempt to create something more.
In this clip Dahlin accepts the puck off the wall with speed and approaches the defenseman 1 on 1. He fools him and cuts middle forcing Foligno to step up and challenge Dahlin for a hit, leaving McCabe wide open on the backdoor for Dahlin to easily find for the goal.
This is what you want to see more of from him. Trying to create a play in the middle can cause confusion and force a defender to commit, thus leaving a guy open. As of right now, he's able to make that first move, but is reluctant to make another to get himself to a more dangerous area.
Right here he makes a really nice move on Killorn and has room to work with in the slot, but he instead just dumps it back out to Bjork on the outside. No shot is generated and Tampa is never threatened.
This clip is infuriating. Dahlin walks the line and dangles Mangiapane with a TON of space ahead of him in the slot. Instead, he just dumps it back off to the point and the Sabres really never threaten the net.
The path to the net was given to him, but he refuses to attack that space. As soon as it clicks in his head he's going to be produce so much more.
Signs of Life
To end this film session on a more positive note, I'll show a few clips of Dahlin showing off what may still be locked inside of him.
Dahlin nearly puts Hedman on the highlight reel. He pokes the puck past him and then outworks him to get it back, then sending a phenomenal pass from his knees to Bjork who can't finish.
Exactly what you what to see from Dahlin, tons of movement. He builds up a ton of speed before receiving the puck from Okposo. He loads like he's ready for the point shot and then slips it through his legs, beating two defenders and being able to get a shot off.
A good example of what cheating to the outside would look like. Sprong cheats to the boards as he goes to block the shot and Dahlin catches him flatfooted. He makes the cut inside and perfectly dishes it to Asplund, but he fans on the shot.
Dahlin dances around the Flames' top 5. He chips it past Tkachuk, drives wide on Lindholm, and makes Hanifin commit to him down low before feeding Hayden in front for a near goal. This is the active movement in the offensive zone you want to see more out of him.
I still think there's a franchise defender in Dahlin, but it needs to start showing itself. We cannot keep waiting and waiting for Dahlin to take the next step. After a while moving on is going to have to be considered, especially with the Sabres' talent at LHD.
He doesn't every have to be a steady d-man, but he cannot be the defensive liability he's been so often this season. He's better than that, I know it. And IF he is always gonna struggle defensively, then we NEED to see him excelling offensively.
I hope this film session helped highlight where some of the struggles can be put into context. Seeing the comparison between the Minnesota game and now really put opened my eyes to the tendencies Dahlin has really gotten away from. I hope it helps you too.
So let's pray that by the end of the season Dahlin has established himself as a #1 defender and has shown that all this trades talk is crazy.
Until then... Go Sabres.