Three weeks ago, the Sabres were sitting fat and happy with a momentous 7-3-0 start to the season. A fantastic west coast trip and a successful home-stand had the team carrying some serious swagger heading into their toughest stretch to date. We knew that playing the likes of Tampa Bay, Carolina, Vegas, and Boston would give the team some serious adversity though.
However, to say this last stretch has been disappointing is a bit of an understatement. The Sabres have quickly fallen from 2nd to 2nd last in the entire division. The goal-scoring has dried up, the injuries have caused as many problems as we thought they would, and overall, this team looks nothing like the roster we've become accustomed to ever since March of last season.
So the question becomes, are the Sabres really already out of it? Is being somewhat a part of the playoff race already out of the question? Or is there still something that is waiting to be brought out of this team?
Let's discuss what has and hasn't gone wrong, and see what it tells us about the Sabres moving forward.
Improvements Thus Far
Biggest of all when it comes to the Sabres play this season that has improved, is the step they've taken in offense. Even despite their recent stretch, the Sabres sit ninth in the entire NHL in goals per game with 3.44, and 11th in total goals scored with 62.
Beyond the baseline stats, the Sabres advanced numbers have been the best in nearly a decade.
The Sabres have the highest expected goals percentage at 5v5 as a whole team since the last time they made the playoffs. And prior to Leafs game, they were sitting above the 09-10 team.
Leaps from Dahlin and Thompson have been a godsend for this roster, and they've still been receiving some very good offensive play from Skinner, Tuch, and Cozens.
That all mixed in with with the very solid transitions of the rookies in Quinn, Peterka, and Power, and you have yourself a pretty competent offense.
It's very encouraging that the team has taken a step in this regard. These last few games of the losing streak have brought it down a couple points, and I would not be surprised at all if the Sabres finish with the highest xGF% since 2009.
Beyond that, as we have mentioned, some players have taken some very serious steps forward. Largest of all being Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin.
If there was anyone worried about the extension Tage signed in late August, he's proven so far that the Sabres made the right call signing him early. He's by far been the MVP of the Sabres forward corps, being one of the only players to constantly drive offense night in and night out.
He's currently on a 100-point pace and 54-goal pace, which is just absurd, and it doesn't even feel unsustainable. He's constantly the Sabres' most dangerous weapon night in and night out and continues to exceeded anyone's expectations of him. He's become one of the most fun players to watch in all of hockey, not just the Sabres.
And as for Dahlin, he's the taken that big step we've all wanted him to since he was drafted. While the hot start has dwindled a bit, he's been tasked with consistently logging close to 30 minutes a night ever since Samuelsson went down, also having to deal with an injury as well.
He's clearly the backbone of the team, and the offense suffers when he has an off night, if ever.
The Bad
As we know, there is a lot to unpack with what has gone wrong these past few weeks, so we'll break it up.
Special Teams
First, we'll start with the power play. We plan to go a bit more in depth on this topic, but long story short, we all know how brutal this unit has looked. Somehow amassing an eight game streak with a goal on the man advantage, the Sabres's power play has been one of the worst looking units in the entire league.
They still haven't learned that without Jack Eichel they have to attempt other plays than the simple to point-to-wing one-timer. Ever since game one, the puck movement on the power play has consisted of Mittelstadt or Quinn passing back and forth with Dahlin until they can somehow draw the defender off Thompson so they can feed him for the one-timer, which the goalie saves nine times out of ten and the opposing team eventually clears.
And that's just if the opposing team is respecting the Sabres' space. Anytime the Sabres plan a somewhat aggressive penalty kill unit, the power play is exposed beyond belief. Opposing teams know that there's only three players that are going to touch the puck in the entire two minutes, leading to countless turnovers.
Breaking into the zone is a whole other process as well. If Tage Thompson or Alex Tuch aren't able to perfectly break into the zone all by themselves after the Dahlin drop pass, then the Sabres just aren't gonna be able to set anything up at all. After three or four tries, they'll eventually just dump it in, which in it of itself becomes a 50/50 on whether or not they retrieve the puck, and by that point there's hardly eve enough time left to set up even if they gain possession.
That doesn't even cover the personnel decisions on there, but we'll save that discussion for another day. Overall, there's just so much more work that needs to be done. Whatever voodoo Michael Peca is working down Rochester needs to be transferred to the main club somehow.
As for the penalty kill, it's a complete flip of the script. The numbers indicate it should be somewhat better, yet they sit at the bottom of the barrel in the league. It's currently sitting at 60% through these past eight games, and 70% on the season, not good at all. Per Evolving Wild, they're 30th in the league in GA/60, 24th in xGA/60, and 24th in CA/60. Overall, not great at limiting shot opportunities.
However, they're also fourth in the league in GF/60, third in xGF%, and first in GF/60. It's a very confusing slate of statistics that honestly reflects the state of the team as a whole at even strength. The power kill has done its job of creating great scoring opportunities, but it seems when the other team sets it up in-zone, the Sabres have a problem limiting quality shot opportunities.
Some of that I'm sure can be attributed to Samuelsson being hurt, but it also likely has to do with personnel decisions, such as Jacob Bryson being a regular on the PK since Granato has been hired, which is a great transition into the next topic.
Personnel Decisions
If there's one thing that's become more and more head-scratching as this losing streak has gone on, it's been Granato's lineup decisions. However, this has been a problem since the start of the season.
It started with Peyton Krebs. Through the first two games of the season he was on the wing alongside Cozens and Peterka, essentially the 2nd line, and played great. In those two games he carried the highest CF% percentage on the team at 5v5 (58.33 CF%) and the fifth highest xGF% (55.51 xGF%), with one primary assist as well.
Sure, small sample size, but after these two strong showings he was immediately pushed down to the 4th line when the team left for Alberta, so that Hinostroza could get into the lineup. Then, two games later, he found himself as a healthy scratch. Ever since then, he hasn't even touched the top-six, and has been a non-factor for special teams construction, being bounced on and off the second power play unit.
For a player that was so integral to the biggest move of Kevyn Adams' tenure, the Sabres sure are making an effort to keep him pushed down in the lineup.
This goes for the entire forward 'rotation' as a whole as well. While I understand the logic behind having a rotation that primarily involved rookies, it's quickly become frustrating. For the first few weeks of the season, Jack Quinn was the player stuck in a cycle of not being given much opportunity, getting scratched because of it, and consequently playing with a lack of confidence. Krebs quickly became this cycle's next victim.
However, it was taken to the next level when Asplund was healthy scratched. Sitting your best defensive forward on a team that struggles immensely defensively is just a complete head-scratcher. It also gave way to easy criticism of Granato, because if Asplund was a part of this rotation, then Olofsson and Mittelstadt definitely needed to be a part of it, and they still haven't been.
All of this headache has been caused because Hinostroza was re-signed, and given how things have transpired recently, I wouldn't be surprised if frustration picked up again when Girgensons and Okposo return.
Then, there's the defensive decisions. Ever since Jokiharju, Samuelsson, and Lyubushkin went down in consecutive games, an already sloppy defensive team has been getting worked at points. That's not the issue, having defensive lapses is likely something we were all expecting, but in recent games it feels like they're being set up to fail.
The elephant in the room is the Dahlin-Power pairing. While very fun at points, this is the absolute worst time to be doing this from start to finish. The Sabres are just a worse team at the moment when these two are together for a full game.
Games like these have basically been the norm ever since the two were put together against Boston. It's no different than McDavid and Draisaitl in Edmonton, having your two best players at a position out at the same time sounds fantastic and fun, but over a larger sample size the rest of the team is going to suffer from it.
If you're down a goal in the third period, then sure, throw out Dahlin and Power in the offensive zone and watch them work some magic. However, starting and finishing with this pair together right now requires the two of them to be logging close to 30 minutes a night, and that's a large ask, ESPECIALLY for 19-year-old Owen Power.
Granato sticking with this pair through four whole games of this streak has been rather worrying as well. It's just not providing the results it needs to and the team is suffering as a result.
Lastly, his defensive scratches have been confusing as well.
Two of these players have essentially been lineup regulars, the other two haven't and one of them currently resides in the AHL. The Sabres have clearly had their loyalties lie with Bryson and Fitzgerald, and it's unfortunately contributing to their struggles. Play the best players and you won't keep yourself in these ruts for as long as you do.
Team Defense
It's no secret that the Sabres' defensive display has been an outright train wreck at points. Blown coverage in-zone, countless odd-man rushes, and just lazy play at points highlight exactly what is going wrong in the defensive end currently.
Comrie and Anderson have not been anything outstanding so far, but night after night it feels like they're being continuously hung out to dry.
If there is any room for optimism, it's that the numbers don't actually hate the Sabres all that much; they're below average, but not completely in the deep end. At 5v5, Evolving Wild has the Sabres at 17th in xGA/60 and NST has them 17th in xGA & 21st in HDCA.
Defensive lapses are no doubt going to happen with a team as young as the Sabres, but at some point improvements are going to have to be seen. Frustration is only going to continue to keep mounting if teams are making a fortune out of scoring on 2-on-1s or being wide open in the slot.
Closing Thoughts
It's still very early, and things can turn around in a blink of an eye. Just ask the streaking St. Louis Blues what they think about their eight-game losing streak this season. Winning heals all, and some of the numbers indicate that the Sabres will get better results in the coming weeks.
However, some of these issues (such as personnel decisions and the power play) have persisted since last season, and require a sizable shift in philosophy. Overall, I just hope the team isn't stuck under .500 for the better part of the season. For me, that would be pretty close to a disappointment for this roster, and I don't want those type of question marks going forward.
So here's to hoping the Sabres make us overreacting fans look like idiots and get us back on the vibes train moving forward.
Go Sabres.
Charts and Data posted in this article are from JFreshHockey, Evolving-Hockey, and Natural Stat Trick.
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