Since the 2019-20 season, Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo have been the foundation of the Sabres' fourth line and bottom six as a whole. Outside of the shortened 2020-21 season where Girgensons was held out due to an injury and Okposo had arguably his weakest season as a Sabre, it has been smooth sailing with these two players as the fourth line rocks.
Ever since Don Granato and Kevyn Adams shifted the franchise into a new direction in the summer of 2021, their roles have escalated from these solid depth players into essential leaders to guide this young group of Sabres into a new era. They were both granted status as the assistant captains of the team for the 2021-22 season and Okposo was promoted to captain this past season.
Their impact on this new core has been undeniable, with Okposo constantly being praised by the players for the guidance he provides and Girgensons always being the quiet workhorse for others to model their game off of. With how long they've been a part of this franchise and the lows they've endured during their time here, it's incredible they've stuck with the team and commendable that they've taken on these new and important roles.
So it's almost poetic that the two enter this offseason as UFAs together. Kevyn Adams faces a big decision when weighing the potential return of these two to the Sabres next season. There are both pros and cons to consider on each side of the argument.
As for public opinion on the situation, a majority of the fanbase would prefer that the franchise turns the page on their side of Sabres' history.
Over 30% of this vote had people wishing they would both move on, and only 18.8% (the smallest portion of the vote) wishes to see both return. It did feel like you saw a lot of criticism thrown their way during the middle of this past season, especially in Okposo's case. I think most recognize Girgensons' value and would just prefer a fresh face in that role, but with Okposo it feels like there is a genuine dislike of his game for many, which I can't really get onboard with.
I feel a lot of this hate for either player is unjustified. There's valid reasoning to want to move on from both players, but I don't believe that the quality of their play is a reason to drop them. In fact, if it were a perfect world I would bring both of them back next season.
But you've read the title of this blog and know that there's a reason they probably can't do it, even if the team were better off if they did. So let's not waste any time and break it down.
Making the argument for re-signings
I'll preface this by saying I don't think the Sabres are really going to touch their forward group this off-season. I think they'll explore their options, but unless there is a deal too good to pass up, I think we'll see pretty much the same cast.
Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Peterka, Quinn, Mittelstadt, Greenway, Krebs and Jost already makes up 10 forward spots. Olofsson is looking like he'll get dealt, but you're still looking at Girgensons, Okposo, and about six Rochester guys fighting for four spots. I wouldn't be surprised if they left the 3rd highest scoring offense in the NHL last season alone.
Now back to Girgensons and Okposo. When discussing why I think both should be brought back I'll be short and sweet: I don't know if their forward group can afford to lose what they bring to the table.
It would be an understatement to say that, as a team, the Sabres were lackluster defensively. While their weak goaltending probably exaggerated much of their struggles, the Sabres' players did not do much to help them out. They were in the league's lower echelon in GA/60, xGA/60, HDCA, etc. etc.
The point is, the Sabres were not good in their own zone, which is something we already knew. In total, there are probably only six players on the roster who had real solid seasons in the defensive zone: Dahlin, Tuch, Quinn, Krebs, and you guessed it, Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons, who posted arguably the best metrics on the team.
What more can you really ask from your fourth liners? You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone that does their jobs as well as Girgensons and Okposo do, especially considering the free-wheeling team that they were a part of. You can replace these types of players, but that's all it is: replacing something you already had.
In the case of Okposo, yes, I think we all recognize he is in the twilight of his career, but that does not mean he's no longer a serviceable player. Sure, his straight-line speed has taken a hit, but as you can see he does pretty much everything else you'd want out of your fourth line right winger.
Even just looking at the raw production, Okposo put up 11 goals and 28 points last season, his fourth-highest points-per-game clip ever as a Sabre. Sure, it's not gonna blow your socks off, but he's not a liability whatsoever. At the end of the day, you have the ability to bring back two very good defensive bottom-six players that will not break the bank whatsoever.
Evolving Hockey projects that Kyle Okposo's most likely contract will be a 1-year, $1.2 million deal, and that Girgensons' will be 3-years, $2.01 million. I don't think the Sabres would ever go three years with Girgensons at this point, but I digress, neither player would cost that much.
Why they probably can't do it...
Like I said, in a perfect world I would be all for bringing both of them back for another season. However, there is one emerging narrative that is probably going to handcuff Kevyn Adams: the Buffalo Sabres are a good hockey team now, and an even healthier organization.
Let's take a look at the Rochester Americans. It's no secret that Jiri Kulich has made headlines for his fantastic rookie season, and no doubt carries a very good chance of making the main roster next season.
Then, you've got Lukas Rousek who is already 24 years old and looked like he belonged in his very short two-game stint; his chance at an extended look has to be coming sooner or later.
Not to mention, you've got Brandon Biro who would've been the Amerks' leading scorer had he stayed healthy and not been forced to get season-ending surgery, and likely would've gotten the call-up over Rousek. He was over a point per game through 50 contests when he went down.
Even Isak Rosen, who's been having a sneaky good back half of the season in the AHL ever since returning from the World Juniors, might be due a call-up at some point next season.
You also have to look at the makeup of the Amerks as a whole. Currently, it has a good mix of veterans and youngsters, with guys like Sean Malone, Brett Murray, Michael Mersch, Linus Weissbach and the aforementioned Rousek & Biro playing alongside the group of Isak Rosen, Aleksandr Kisakov, Filip Cederqvist, and Tyson Kozak.
However, they will soon be joined by the likes of Oliver Nadeau, Noah Ostlund, Viktor Neuchev, and possibly even Matthew Savoie in another year. The roster spots for Rochester vets are going to start shrinking, so the Sabres may want to figure out what exactly they have in some of these guys before they're edged out.
It's why a scenario where both Girgensons and Okposo return feels like it's slipping away by the day. In my opinion, two of Kulich/Rousek/Biro need to be on this roster next season, and one of them needs to be in the lineup every night. It can't be a scenario like this past season with Vinny Hinostroza, Anders Bjork, or Rasmus Asplund where they were the 13th/14th forwards and went very extended stretches without playing, they have to be given opportunities.
This is why, to me, it feels like Girgensons is the odd man out here. He's simply too good and too reliable a forward to be a part of any forward rotation. It's a tough decision, but the Sabres are in a spot where they really need to give some of their best players in the system a chance.
I think Okposo returns. Elliotte Friedman suggested such a few weeks ago, and I really believe that he wants to be a part of this group when they make the playoffs. However, his role would still have to change. I know I just defended his play from last season, but the fact remains he is 35 years old, that drop-off is coming at some point. I believe he can repeat his play from last season, but I think he would be better served if there was some reasonable load management throughout the season.
He can still play more games than he sits, but sitting a few here and there would make a ton of sense for his own sake and would allow for some fresh bodies to get into the lineup.
Just look at this past season: Kyle Okposo's first game after a 10-day layoff in December due to the Buffalo Blizzard? A hat trick, and his best performance of the season.
Am I totally blowing a one-game sample size of this theory out of proportion? Maybe, but I don't think it's crazy to think a little rest every once in a while wouldn't hurt.
Final Thoughts
Okposo and Girgensons have been absolute troopers for this organization. They've suffered through the same miserable seasons that we all have for the past seven years and should be commended for sticking through it.
However, a crossroads is quickly approaching.
The defensive ability that the two bring (especially in Girgensons' case) is vital for a team that lacks it in many places, and to possibly take that out and replace it with big unknowns (whether it's Kulich, Biro, Rousek, Murray, etc.) would be a risk. The Sabres would need some sizable improvement from guys like Cozens, Peterka, Samuelsson, etc., or have their goaltending bail them out.
However, the organization is getting to a point where they need to make some tough decisions on the forward talent they have layered throughout.
If the Sabres do decide to bring both Girgensons and Okposo back, great! They'll have some stability on their fourth line for another season. Figuring out how to get the Rochester guys games would be challenging, but in the worst-case scenario, the Amerks are loaded up for another season.
If they let one or both go, then we'll know that players that have been biding their time in the AHL will finally be rewarded for their patience and given a shot.
Either way, it's a good problem to have. The Sabres struggling with roster issues that involve having a surplus of depth instead of a lack of it is very refreshing. You can never go wrong with too much talent.
As always, Go Sabres.
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