The Buffalo Sabres need to make the playoffs in 2025.
There's really nothing else to say. The Sabres have officially entered into the results business. Winning is now truly the only thing that matters. This means that it is on GM Kevyn Adams to have the summer of his career.
It's always fun to hop in the GM chair yourself, so what would I do if I had to bear the stakes of next season on my shoulders? Well, let's find out.
UFAs
Heading into the offseason, here are the Sabres' current pending UFAs (Rochester players not included):
Zemgus Girgensons
Tyson Jost
Victor Olofsson
Eric Robinson
Eric Comrie
All but one of these names will need to find new homes.
Re-Sign Eric Robinson (1 year, $1 million AAV)
Eric Robinson is the one player I chose to re-sign. I never found myself disliking his game after being acquired from the Blue Jackets, and think he could be a nice 12th/13th forward.
RFAs
Now for the RFAs. The Sabres have some notable names on this list:
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Henri Jokiharju
Peyton Krebs
Jacob Bryson
Kale Clague
Riley Stillman
Jacob Bryson, Kale Clague, and Riley Stillman won't be receiving qualifying offers from me. In Bryson and Stillman's cases, I wouldn't be opposed to bringing them back, but I would drop them to free agency first before negotiating a cheaper deal.
Re-Sign Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (3 years, $4.7 million AAV)
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was the MVP of the Sabres' season last year. Coincidentally, it comes in a contract year. For the first time in a while, it seems as if Buffalo has a legit starting goaltender on their hands.
As for the contract, I settled on a 3-year deal with a $4.7 million AAV. Evolving Hockey has his most likely contract coming in at 4-years, $5.2 million AAV, which is just a tad rich for my liking, although not a bad deal.
The 3-year projection settles in at a little over $4.6 million a season, so I rounded up to $4.7 million and finalized the deal.
Re-Sign Peyton Krebs (2 years, $1.8 million AAV)
Peyton Krebs heads to the negotiating table without much leverage to command much of anything. He got his chance to perform in the Sabres' 3rd line center role once Casey Mittelstadt was dealt to Colorado, but he struggled to do much with the opportunity.
He is not a bad player whatsoever, but his inability to take the role by the reins has caused the Sabres to start their search for another center this offseason. I still have a little bit of hope that Lindy Ruff may be able to pull something out of Krebs we haven't seen yet, but for now we'll settle on a 2 year deal worth $3.6 million.
Trades
Ok, now for the best part of this exercise. Lets have some fun.
WPG Receives: 2024 11th Overall Pick + 2025 4th Round Pick (MIN)
BUF Receives: Nikolaj Ehlers
The Sabres have been in the hunt for an addition to their top-six, and have also been one of the teams rumored to have made their 2024 1st Round Pick available. Nikolaj Ehlers and the Winnipeg Jets are seemingly headed towards a divorce, with Ehlers reportedly informing the Jets he isn't interested in signing an extension past next season. I think there's a deal to be made here.
Ehlers is a fantastic offensive playdriver that for whatever reason was just never given his fair amount of opportunity in Winnipeg he deserved. If Buffalo were able to get their hands on his services, they would be reaping the benefits of a silent superstar.
Ehlers does own a 10-team no-trade list, however, I am banking on the Sabres offering that something he never had in Winnipeg: opportunity. Whether that's extended ice in the top-six or on the top power play, bargaining could change his mind if it's necessary.
You might be under the impression this is a light return for a player of his caliber, but I think we've learned in recent years that the price for a winger one year away from free agency isn't all too high. Usually, the price comes to a 1st + a roster player/prospect. Given that the 11th overall pick is rather high compared to the 1sts that have been thrown around in similar situations, I think you only have to add another mid-round pick to convince Winnipeg.
At 28 years old with only a year remaining on his current contract, determining how to keep Ehlers around into his 30s at a good price is a difficult subject to tackle, but that's a bridge you have to cross when you approach it. The Sabres are at the stage where they need to acquire established talent, and he is exactly that. The gamble of surrendering a high pick in 11th overall is one you just have to take in this situation.
VGK Receives: Noah Östlund + 2025 2nd Round Pick
BUF Receives: Nicolas Roy
The Sabres have been searching for a new 3rd line center as early as this past NHL trade deadline. They've reportedly had previous interest in names such as Noah Cates, Scott Laughton, and Tommy Novak.
For this deal, I've chosen to make a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights. They currently have a little more than $2 million in cap space heading into the summer, and original misfit Jonathan Marchessault needs a new contract. We know they've been cut-throat with their players many times before, but this is a name I would expect they'd want to bring back.
In order to do so they need to clear some cap space. That's where Nicolas Roy comes in, who is on a sweetheart of a contract for what he provides. He's signed throughout the 2026-27 season at a measly $3 million AAV, and has provided fantastic value for the team's bottom-six.
Why would they trade him? They probably won't, but there's a few reasons their opinion could be swayed. For one, he carries the highest cap hit of any player on the roster that doesn't own any sort of trade protection. Additionally, Vegas is theoretically able to ice a center spine of Eichel-Hertl-Karlsson that should be more than able to survive Roy's departure.
As we said, the value of that contract is great, so to make this deal I'm surrendering both Noah Östlund's services, and a 2025 2nd round pick. Barring another LTIR plagued season, Vegas is getting to the point where outside additions should begin to slow down, and they'll have to inject some draft capital into their system. This is something the Sabres can provide.
I figure that in order to convince Vegas to hand over Roy it'll need to be a tempting deal. Östlund puts a young center back in the Golden Knight's system with a similar ceiling to Roy, and the 2nd round pick is a sweetener. This might be perceived as an overpay by giving up both a top prospect and a high-round pick, but the Sabres are in desperation mode and might have to stomach an overpay to get what they need in a trade.
UTAH Receives: Henri Jokiharju (Signing Rights)
BUF Receives: 2025 2nd Round Pick (EDM)
It's been rumored previously that the Sabres have looked to move on from Henri Jokiharju. His next contract could find itself within the $3-4 million range, and I don't think his role with the Sabres justifies that pay raise.
That's where the A̶r̶i̶z̶o̶n̶a̶ C̶o̶y̶o̶t̶e̶s̶ Utah Hockey Club comes in. Believe it or not, they don't have a single NHL defenseman under contract currently (well... unless you count Shea Weber). I'm sending Jokiharju without a deal as well, so I guess I'm not solving any of their issues, but they do receive his rights and have more than enough cap space to accommodate an extension.
A 2025 2nd round pick might seem a tad rich, especially with the only hint of possible trade value linked to Jokiharju being a "late-round pick" by Frank Seravalli. However, I think given Jokiharju is a young, right-handed defenseman with plenty of NHL experience, and that Arizona owns seven 2nd round picks over the next 2 years, you might be able to squeeze the Edmonton pick out of their hands. Plus, last season they also coughed up a 2nd round pick for Sean Durzi's RFA rights as well.
Just a heads up, we aren't done with that 2nd round pick.
NJD Receives: Jordan Greenway + Connor Clifton + 2025 2nd Round Pick (EDM)
BUF Receieves: John Marino
The Sabres are in a pretty good situation cap-wise, but looking at their contracts there are a few deals that I think are slight roadblocks. Jordan Greenway and Connor Clifton fall into this group for me. Coincidentally, they were also two of the main 'Granato guys', both being brought in partly because the former Sabres coach knew them well.
With this deal I'm moving both out in the same deal, while also bringing in a player that Lindy Ruff has come to know fairly well the past few seasons.
John Marino has been very solid defensively during his time with New Jersey. He hasn't been able to recapture the results he attained in his early days with Pittsburgh, but his metrics in his own end have still held fairly firm. I figure that his $4.4 million AAV may be something the Devils want to move on from if they wish to make a bigger splash in free agency, while also making room for a player like Simon Nemec higher in the lineup.
It's been reported that the Devils shopping list for this summer is rather extensive, and two of those needs include a bottom-six forward and bottom-four defenseman.
Greenway and Clifton fit those descriptions. However, taking on all $6+ million that come with their contracts may be a tough sell, so that's why I'm adding in the Edmonton 2nd round pick acquired in the Jokiharju trade. Greenway is hardly a negative asset, but Clifton could be perceived as such (especially considering he earned a suspension for checking their captain in the head this past season), but, for what it's worth, Clifton is a New Jersey native.
This move solidifies the Sabres' top four, while also providing an additional amount of cash to spend in free agency.
Free Agency
Onto the open market we go.
Sign Jordan Martinook (3 years, $2.9 million AAV)
The bottom-six of the lineup continues to undergo its construction, and I'm bringing in Jordan Martinook as my big signing. He's been a key piece of Carolina's bottom-six for the past six seasons and now heads to free agency.
He'll provide some solid production to the bottom of the lineup and be a key piece to the team's penalty kill. Evolving Hockey projects that his most likely contract is a 3 year, $2.65 million AAV deal, so I added a bit of a Buffalo tax which brings him just below $3 million.
Sign Colin Miller (1 year, $2 million AAV)
A Colin Miller reunion with the Sabres might be an avenue worth exploring.
Miller is one of the defensemen on the lower end of the pay scale that I think could provide some value for the Sabres, especially given his handed-ness, and his roles in the past. In Buffalo, he was looked upon as a player that needed to provide top-four quality, which is why at some times he was a frustrating watch.
However, his value has shined through in recent stops in Dallas, New Jersey, and Winnipeg where he was able to thrive while placed in more sheltered minutes. In fact, the time he spent in New Jersey this past season was done under Lindy Ruff.
Perhaps Miller liked playing in this environment and would consider a return to Buffalo. Miller's most likely contract in the 1-year range is a measly $1.1 million, but I think it'll take a little more convincing, which is why I upped it to $2 million.
Sign Nicolas Aube-Kubel (1 year, $1 million AAV)
The bottom of the lineup continues further construction with the addition of 2022 Stanley Cup Champion Nicolas Aube-Kubel. In super sheltered minutes in Washington, he put up some ridiculous defensive numbers on their 4th line with Nic Dowd.
Those numbers probably don't perfectly translate to Buffalo, but his history with other teams at the very least indicate he is a responsible depth forward. He'll be a nice add to this revamped bottom-six.
Sign Troy Stecher (1 year, $1 million AAV)
Outside of one bad season split between Arizona and Calgary in 2022-23, Stecher has been a solid bottom pair option throughout his career. He's not going to 'wow' you, but if he can come in and be a value-add for a cheap price, this addition could go nicely.
I see him as the 7th defenseman to start, but he is coming off ankle surgery which could open up the door for Ryan Johnson to take that spot from him.
Final Roster
Alright, let's put the pieces together. Here's my 23-man roster for Opening Night.
I'm pretty satisfied with how this turned out.
I got my top-six piece in Ehlers and my 3rd-line center in Roy, both without surrendering either of Savoie or Kulich. I solidified my top-four with Marino, and got an upgrade on Clifton with either of Miller or Stecher.
I finished with little more than $200k in cap space. Not much wiggle room, but hey, this roster is all-in for the playoffs. Also, with this current makeup (and with any big offseason that Adams chases) it does become apparent that this is likely the last season with Jeff Skinner as a Sabre. Oh well, cross that bridge when you get there, right?
Ultimately, this group should absolutely make the dance. That is an incredibly deep core of forwards on paper, and as long as Luukkonen continues his upward trajectory, this team should end the 13-year drought. Now we just wait and see what Kevyn Adams has up his own sleeve.
What do you think about this offseason? Feel free to let us know! And as always, Go Sabres.
Charts and Data posted are from Evolving-Hockey and CapFriendly.
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