The 2024 NHL Playoffs have now officially wrapped up and after a historic Stanley Cup Finals, the Florida Panthers are your Stanley Cup Champions. With this season finally finished, the Buffalo Sabres can now look to move on from the disappointment that was the 2023-24 campaign.
That word 'disappointment' really doesn't begin to describe the cloud of mediocrity that hung over this team from the moment the puck was dropped on opening night. Finishing with a record of 39-37-6 and 84 points, the Sabres found themselves in sixth place in the Atlantic Division; a seven point decrease from the previous season. To be blunt: it wasn't good enough and it resulted in seismic change.
Don Granato was fired as head coach, and Lindy Ruff was brough back into the organization in his place. What Ruff's impact on the team will be, along with the roster changes that will be made by Kevyn Adams, are questions that make for a fun unknown factor heading into this summer.
So what does need to change? What should we expect to see as we approach the draft and head into free agency in the next few weeks? Let's jump into it quickly before any additional trades are made.
Housekeeping Items
Let's start with Jeff Skinner.
A few weeks ago, the idea of buying out the remainder of Jeff Skinner's contract wasn't given much thought. However, once Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek began speaking about the very real possibility that it could happen speculation has run rampent, with Adams not exactly dousing the flames in his pre-draft press conference. Suddenly, the idea didn't sound so crazy.
Skinner himself had a very quiet backhalf of the season, which is why this conversation is being entertained. It's very likely that the team does not view him as a top-six forward anymore, and he is too unreliable in his own end to be entrusted with bottom-six deployment. Couple all of that with the fact that him and Lindy Ruff have seemed like a mismatch since day 1, and we find ourselves here.
Looking at the details of the buyout itself, you begin to understand why this is being considered. In short, it provides an additional amount of money for the Sabres to utilize this summer; $7.5 million to be exact. With this big boost in cap space, you would be led to believe that it would be used to make more additions to the roster.
The Sabres would face their biggest challenges with the cap in 2025-26 and 2026-27 where Skinner's dead cap hit would be $4.445 and $6.445 million respectively. However, next season is what matters most, and this decision would give the Sabres a better opportunity to build a complete roster. Plus, from Kevyn Adams' point of view, if this season goes south and he is fired, then it becomes the next general manager's problem.
We'll hear about what the final decision is on Skinner in a few days once the buyout window officially opens, so stay tuned.
Also, for the 634th time, they will have to make a decision on whether or not to bring back Zemgus Girgensons. Just like any other season he was a reliable defensive forward on the fourth line, but the vibe heading into the offseason does feel slightly different this time around.
'Accountability' was the word at the forefront of the Sabres' locker cleanout interviews and given that Girgensons has been an assistant captain of this group for quite some time, it does feel like some of this criticism is pointed in his direction. Not that there is a fundamental problem with his leadership, but with the Sabres entering a new stage of their rebuild, a new long-term leadership core being established would make sense.
Tyson Jost, Victor Olofsson, Eric Robinson and Eric Comrie are the other pending unrestricted free agents the Sabres will have to make decisions on. Olofsson and Comrie will definitely be gone, and given the way Jost's season went I would assume he is out the door as well.
I could see Eric Robinson being a guy they decided to bring back in a 12th/13th forward role. His speed on the fourth line is a nice asset, and I never found myself disliking his game.
As for the restricted free agents , this is where things start to get interesting. The notable names here include Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Peyton Krebs, Henri Jokiharju and Jacob Bryson.
Bryson was real good at various points this season, and I could see the Sabres considering bringing him back as a seventh defenseman option. No matter what, don't expect the Sabres to end up signing his expensive qualifying offer.
As for Jokiharju, there were previous rumors that the Sabres were looking to move on from him as early as this past NHL trade deadline, but that obviously didn't come to fruition. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sabres revisit that scenario this summer, as he may be due for a raise that ends up in the $3-4 million range, and I don't know if the organization can justify that price tag.
As for Peyton Krebs, he had himself a very up and down season, with mostly downs and only quick spurts of ups. For a majority of the season it felt like he was stuck in Granato's doghouse, but he did begin to build some momentum in a short stint while on a scoring line with JJ Peterka and Zach Benson. However, despite this brief improved play, this stint would be short-lived.
However, once Casey Mittelstadt was dealt for Bowen Byram prior to the NHL deadline, that opened the door once again for Krebs to get an extended look as the Sabres' third-line center. Unfortunately, it went very poorly, as most of his time was spent with a struggling Jeff Skinner, and while one may think that could've been a mix of skillsets that yielded positive results, it did not.
Krebs heads into the offseason with his stock at the lowest it's ever been, and with the Sabres making their center search one of their top priorities. I am reserving final judgements on his future as an NHL player until I see how Lindy Ruff decides to utilize him, but for now he likely slots in as the Sabres' fourth-line center.
This is a contract negotiation that should be very straightforward. I would expect a one or two year deal that shouldn't cross over a $2 million average annual value. Evolving Hockey predicts the same, with his most likely contract being at two-years, $1.775 million AAV.
Lastly, lets talk about the big one: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. With many (including myself) failing to see his path to a future with the Sabres prior to the season, Luukkonen put on a goaltending display to remember in the 54 games he appeared in. He was without a doubt the team's MVP, and has solidified himself as the number one option heading into next season.
He now heads to the negotiating table with the ball in his court. It's been a rocky road to his coronation as the Sabres' top netminder, with the organization never giving him the full benefit of the doubt (like they would've with Devon Levi) until his play forced their hand.
I've stated previously that I wouldn't be surprised if this negotiation took itself to an arbitration hearing, but I would really hope that's not the end scenario. Adams himself has always tried to steer clear of those, and it's always an uncomfortable situation for the parties involved. Plus, it sounds as if there's good communication between each party currently.
As for what the contract could look like, it seems as if we are headed towards a four or five year deal. Jeff Marek reported previously that's where he sees this ending up, and Evolving Hockey puts his most likely extension at a four-year, $5.245 million AAV.
If Luukkonen's play from last season is something that can carry over into future seasons, then I would like this deal for the Sabres. It reminds me of the four-year, $20 million contract Linus Ullmark signed with the Bruins in 2021. It's not hard to picture the Sabres attempting to emulate the Ullmark & Swayman goaltending duo with Luukkonen & Levi heading into next October, so that price tag would be a nice symbolic representation of where their crease is headed.
2024 NHL Draft
The Sabres currently hold the 11th overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, but there has been extensive talk of that asset being used to bolster the current NHL lineup, with even Kevyn Adams himself informing all NHL GM's that the pick is available for trade.
The trade talk is fun, but I will still stress that an 11th overall pick isn't an asset that should be scoffed at as something that can help the Sabres in a timely manner. Zach Benson quite literally just finished up a 71-game rookie season as an 18-year-old. Some might say he's the exception (and while that is probably true), there's exceptions in every draft and given the best trait of the Adams regime has arguably been their ability to draft, I would feel very comfortable with this pick in their hands.
Something that should also be brought up as notable for this draft is that it is has its fair share of quality defensemen available. Names like Artyom Levshunov, Sam Dickinson, Anton Silayev, and Zeev Buuim will probably be out of range, but the opportunity to select players such as Zayne Parekh or Carter Yakemchuk should be there.
Plus, they could also continue to stock up on offensive talent on the farm. For myself, Berkley Catton would be the home run pick of this year's class. I'm crossing my fingers for another Savoie/Benson type slide on draft day.
There's also the possibility they go after a different player profile such as Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, who is closer to being NHL-ready and offers more two-way upside. Or maybe they're the team to bite on the high upside that Cole Eiserman's shot provides.
As always, it should be fun to watch. Maybe the pick does get dealt, I'm all for some fun.
Roster Outlook
Contrary to how past offseasons have been shaped, the Sabres don't have a clear and defined number one need heading into the summer. Now don't misinterpret that, the laundry list of holes to fill is still full, but in previous years it was very clear what the team needed to address before all else.
Last summer it was a top-four defenseman and the the year before it was another goaltender. As of right now, however, you could make the argument for a wide range of needs being at the top of the list. Third-line center, another top-six forward, a top-four defenseman, and multiple bottom-six additions are all holes that should be looked at as weaknesses that could/should be addressed.
Goaltending
At the very least, the long national nightmare of the Sabres looking for a reliable starting option in net is over. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has the starter's crease to himself as of right now, and Kevyn Adams seems pretty confident in Devon Levi being the alternate option on a nightly basis. We shall see how they address the depth in Rochester.
Forwards
The forward group is in for a huge shakeup.
This starts with the aforementioned Jeff Skinner. Even with him being pegged for next season's roster it was theorized that the Sabres were searching for a top-six forward. Now, with a possible buyout imminent, it's a near guarantee they'll add a new face to that group.
Who could that be? Nikolaj Ehlers, Pavel Buchnevich, and Travis Konecny are all bonafide top-six players that are topping trade boards due to being one year from unrestricted free agency. The Sabres have more than enough assets to chase after one of them.
Tyler Toffoli is a player set to hit the open market who performed very well under Ruff in New Jersey this past season. Perhaps they even circle back to Patrick Kane to see if his interests have changed since last December.
Then we move onto the third-line center position. Peyton Krebs' failure to secure that role has made it a pressing issue. There's been previous smoke surrounding the Sabres and players such as Boone Jenner, Noah Cates, Tommy Novak, and Scott Laughton, with recent reports possibly connecting Buffalo to Nic Dowd of the Washington Capitals.
The bottom-six as a whole is also due for a reimagining. With Kyle Okposo gone, and all of Zemgus Girgensons, Tyson Jost, Eric Robinson, and Victor Olofsson possibly leaving to free agency, this is something the Sabres will be forced to address. Right now, you can only really pencil in Peyton Krebs and Jordan Greenway.
Does that leave room for any one of Jiri Kulich, Isak Rosen, or Matthew Savoie to make the team? Perhaps, but that would require a very strong preseason, and I would only entertain the idea of one of those players making the roster.
Kevyn Adams has also stated previously that he wants the Sabres to be harder to play against next season, and to make KeyBank Center an actual home-ice advantage. This makes me think he could chase after some 'heavier' skillsets, that would give the team a big bump on the forecheck. Maybe Yakov Trenin or William Carrier make some sense there.
Defense
As was alluded to earlier, Jokiharju may be on his way out, with Bryson possibly joining him. For now, that leaves you with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Bowen Byram, Mattias Samuelsson, and Connor Clifton as probable locks for the opening night roster. Ryan Johnson will definitely factor into this situation if he's still in the organization come October, but I wouldn't constitute him as a lock.
I do think acquiring Bowen Byram should count as an offseason move for Adams. The Casey Mittelstadt situation did not have to be resolved by the deadline, but he chose to take a big swing on a player with a ton of upside at the present moment. I would still expect one more addition to be made to the backend.
I think ideally you have Dahlin & Byram taking the top pair responsibilities, with Samuelsson & Clifton working together on the third pair. That leaves needing to find a partner for Owen Power.
Who are some possible candidates? Free agency offers a good crop of big fish right-handed options. Chris Tanev, Matt Roy, and Sean Walker are possible big fish adds that would slide in nicely on the second pair.
In the trade market, the Sabres have their fair share of options as well. They could call the Predators about Dante Fabbro again, or take the big swing on a name like Rasmus Andersson. If the New Jersey Devils do end up signing Brett Pesce, then maybe you convince them to hand over John Marino's services, a player that did very well under Lindy Ruff.
Perhaps the Sabres keep their defensive add more cost-effective and low-key to spend big on the forward group. This could mean names like Colin Miller, Jani Hakanpää, or Troy Stecher are potential options.
It'll be interesting to see what Adams' temperature check on his backend is like. Maybe he sees his big addition already previously acquired and rolls out a top four of Dahlin, Power, Byram, and Samuelsson. I wouldn't go that route, but maybe Adams sees it that way, and as we said it allows for more resources to be spent on the forward group.
Closing Thoughts
I made the prediction this time last year that Kevyn Adams was going to be bold and establish that the Sabres were the next Eastern Conference powerhouse. Well, that didn't age too well, and we saw how the subsequent months played out.
It's been implied recently that if this season goes south and the Sabres miss the playoffs again, then this will spell the end for Adams as general manager. It's clear that these next few months will need to be massive, and set the Sabres up to finally end the drought.
Hopefully, any financial restrictions hindering his ability to build a team are gone, and Adams is able to do what he pleases to build a true playoff contender.
I think we can officially dub this as the "Summer of Kevyn". I can only cross my fingers that we bear witness to an offseason of fun and good moves.
Until next time, Go Sabres.
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