The 2023 NHL Playoffs have concluded and the Vegas Golden Knights are your Stanley Cup Champions. Whether you are happy, sad, or mad, the one silver lining that we can take from all of this is that the offseason has officially begun, and there's a ton of fun on the horizon.
The Buffalo Sabres are fresh off their first 90-point campaign since 2011, and while they missed the postseason for the 12th consecutive season, it's hard not to be extremely optimistic about the future. They currently boast one of the youngest rosters in the entire league, and have a shot at being even younger with Craig Anderson's 22 seasons of experience coming off the books.
While the optimism in the fanbase is all nice and fun, for the first time in a long time, things will be different for the Sabres heading into next season: there are going to be expectations. The progress to this point is nice, but it's time for the Sabres to take that jump, they need to make the playoffs next season.
Kevyn Adams has done a fantastic job at tearing down and rebuilding this team since 2021, but now it's time to see his true skills as a general manager. What can he do when the team is expected to win?
So let's dive into what to expect in the coming months.
Housekeeping Items
Before delving into the roster as a whole, let's take a look at some of the storylines scattered within the organization itself that will come to a pass in the next few weeks.
First off, is the decisions that the Sabres will have to make on two key players in their bottom six: Zemgus Girgensons and Tyson Jost.
We'll start with Jost. After being claimed off of waivers in November, Tyson Jost was everything that the Sabres needed in their bottom six. He was a strong two-way presence that could play down the middle in some tough defensive minutes. He came in and had the tough job of reviving the play of two players in quite the slump: Victor Olofsson and Casey Mittelstadt.
Olofsson had his hot and cold streaks per usual, but Mittelstadt took off during his extended look with Tyson Jost. Credit should be given to Casey for developing into one of the league's best pure playmakers, but there's no doubt that Jost's addition to his line helped provide a spark to his play.
However, as the season went on, Jost's role seemed to diminish. His ice time lessened, he was a healthy scratch a few times and Kevyn Adams wasn't very vocal about wanting to re-sign him during locker cleanout.
Jost is a Restricted Free Agent, so the Sabres will be forced to make a definite decision on him, but there is cause for concern about whether or not he'll return. Jost has been clear that he wants to come back to Buffalo, and I think Buffalo re-signs him in the end, but it will definitely be an intriguing storyline to watch as the offseason unfolds.
As for Girgensons, it is a similar situation. He's been with the organization for over a decade now, and has turned himself into one of the best defensive wingers in all of hockey. However, the number of roster spots in Buffalo are shrinking, and Girgensons may stand in the way of other players in the organization earning themselves a promotion, such as Jiri Kulich.
He's been a trooper for the organization, but right now I'd say it's not looking great for the Latvian Locomotive to return to Buffalo for another season. If the Sabres are to re-sign him, great! As we said, he's a fantastic bottom-six presence that plays a key role on the roster. However, if they choose to part ways, then it's a gap that will definitely be tough to fill.
Next up is Victor Olofsson. We had this conversation last year when discussing his contract extension, but many of those points still ring true a year later. He was not a huge contributor at 5v5 once again, and his usual hot and cold streaks made their return once again. By the end of the season, while the Sabres were chasing a playoff spot, Olofsson was the odd man out of the forward lineup and received consecutive healthy scratches.
The writing is clearly on the wall for the Swedish sniper, and heading into the offseason that feeling has been doubled down on. According to Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News, despite not formally requesting a trade, Victor Olofsson's camp is expecting one this offseason.
This is not the first time the Sabres have attempted to explore the trade market with Olofsson, so we'll just have to see if a team bites this time around.
2023 NHL Draft
As it stands right now, the Sabres are slated to make their latest pick in the 1st round since selecting Joel Armia 16th overall in 2011. The 13th overall pick offers some intrigue in a draft class that is as stacked and deep as this one supposedly is.
Some realistic names that have been hovering around Buffalo include Dmitri Simashev, Matthew Wood, Oliver Moore, and Quentin Musty. We'll dig more into potential draftees in a future article, but there's a big unknown factor with this draft for the Sabres, and that's always a lot of fun.
However, all eyes will be pointed toward what happens with Matvei Michkov on draft night. For those that are not up to speed with the situation, Michkov is trending to be one of the most talented prospects ever to slide down the draft board. He's been tearing up Russian hockey leagues since he was 16 years old with his near-generational goal-scoring ability, and he's arguably the only player in this draft class that can rival the ceiling of Connor Bedard.
Where things get dicey is his relationship with his home country. Michkov is signed in the KHL until 2026, and that is unchangeable. He will not be able to come over to North American soil for the next three years, and for many teams that is an immediate turnoff. He's struggled to even have legitimate conversions with teams leading up to the draft.
The questions don't stop there either, there's no guarantee of what happens with Michkov after that KHL contract ends. He could be a player that is never able to leave the country, and most teams in the top half of the draft aren't willing to spend their high pick on a player that may never play for their team, hence why this slide is looking more and more likely.
When outlining which team is best set up for Michkov, they would have to be thinking they can:
a) Wait the minimum three years before he can come overseas
b) Take the hit if he's never able to make it to North America
The Buffalo Sabres check both those boxes. The main roster is already insanely gifted offensively, and that's without mentioning their forward prospect group which speaks for itself. Savoie, Kulich, Ostlund, and Rosen are all high-end talents that could make it into the NHL as impact players someday.
They would have a luxury that not many other teams have of being able to take a risk on a forward prospect that may never play for them. If Michkov can't leave Russia, then the Sabres would still have a fantastic crop of forward talent and the blow wouldn't be so deadly. And if he DOES make it out of Russia? The Sabres would have the chance to add the next great goal scorer to their roster, in a window where they would be looking to win the Stanley Cup.
There are a few teams in front of Buffalo that I just don't think could pass up taking Michkov, however. Washington is the obvious one everyone points to, and I don't know if Arizona passes up on him twice with their two picks in the top 12.
Either way, it'll be an insanely fun storyline to watch as draft night unfolds.
Roster Outlook
Now for the meat and bones of the offseason; what is Kevyn Adams going to do with this roster over the coming months? Let's try to break it down.
Forwards
I wouldn't expect much to change with the third highest scoring offense in the league in the coming months. Thompson, Tuch, Skinner, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, Mittlestadt, Krebs, Greenway, and Okposo are all probably locks for the opening night lineup, and that doesn't leave a lot of room for additions.
We've touched on the Jost, Girgensons, and Olofsson situations, but I'd say there's a solid chance that 2/3 will not be back next season, and even in that scenario that only leaves two roster spots in the bottom six. Not adding any big names makes the conversation less exciting, but on the bright side, it's a good problem to have to not have any spots available. It's assuring that the top six is pretty much locked in for the first time in a while.
If we were to look for an offseason addition, all you have to do is head down the I-90 and take a look at 19-year-old Jiri Kulich. His first season in the AHL went about as well as you could ask for. 46 points in 62 games which included lighting the lamp 24 times; and that was just in the regular season. If you wanted to get an idea of just how crucial Kulich was to the Amerks lineup, take a look at the Amerks while he was out with an injury in the playoffs vs when he returned.
With Kulich out in the first two games in the Syracuse series, Rochester would drop both and quickly find themselves in a 2-0 series deficit on the brink of elimination. However, once he returned, the Amerks would win three straight and advance to the second round. They wouldn't just stop there either, they would go on to sweep the Marlies in three straight games and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2004.
The magic would stop there, as they would drop their next series in six games to a highly experienced Hershey Bears team, but there is no shame in what they accomplished and no doubt how vital Kulich was to their run.
When all was said and done, Kulich finished with seven goals and 11 points in 12 playoff games, a stellar showing for the rookie. I would compare this to JJ Peterka's tremendous run in the AHL playoffs last season, which I believe is the reason he made this roster out of camp this past season. If that's a pattern to follow, then Jiri Kulich may have very well earned himself an opening night roster spot for next season.
Perhaps we'll see the Sabres sign someone in free agency, but even in that scenario my guess is it will be someone to serve as the 12th/13th forward, there's not a lot that needs to be touched with this lineup. They definitely need to be more competent in their own zone, but a large part of that is age/experience, and the Sabres certainly lack a lot of that.
The last thing to address is Matthew Savoie. He had a fantastic second half of the season in the WHL after a slow start and cemented himself as arguably the organization's best prospect. He'll get a nice long look in training camp, however, I don't think there's a real chance that he's on this roster next season. It was cool to see him dress for a few Rochester playoff games (even if their fans may disagree), but he's just not quite ready for that NHL jump yet.
I'm happy to be proven wrong, but I think Savoie will find himself back in the WHL for the third season in a row. Plus, I don't know how smart it would be to have a scenario where both he and Kulich are on this roster next season. The Sabres forwards are young, but having both of them on the team would make them YOUNG. It's better to slowly work them into the lineup over time, not all at once, there's no need to rush.
Defense
Now for the areas that we'll see the most change. Calling the Sabres lackluster defensively would be a bit of an understatement. They're electrifying to watch in the offensive zone, but things aren't as fun when the other team enters their blue line.
Don't get me wrong, the team's defensive structure needs to be improved overall, but their current defensive group is very top-heavy as of right now. Rasmus Dahlin is a superstar that arguably should've won the Norris this season, no complaints for him whatsoever. Owen Power had a fantastic rookie campaign, but his deficiencies currently lie in the defensive end. And while Samuelsson is clearly the key piece in this group, he dealt with injuries seemingly the entire season. It hampered his play while he was healthy, and hurt the team while he was out.
After those three, there's a lot left to be desired. Ilya Lyubushkin was hindered by injuries for much of this season and I would expect a nice rebound next season, and Riley Stillman showed some promise after his acquisition, but that's where most of the positives end.
Henri Jokiharju, Jacob Bryson, and Kale Clague received a lot of ice time, and it was clear that they could not be relied on as much as was needed moving forward. When the entire group was healthy the Sabres could manage, but when one of the "Big 3" went down, you saw the holes that existed in the lineup.
Other than a starting goalie, a top four defenseman is arguably the most important piece the Sabres need added to their team. I'd probably even argue they should add another defenseman for the bottom pair as well. I like Riley Stillman, but I would feel a lot better about their defensive core if he was their seventh defenseman going into the season.
Now, how they get these additions is up to them. Free Agency offers some interesting candidates, such as Radko Gudas, Scott Mayfield, Carson Soucy, and Matt Dumba. However, these options are about as good as it gets, and they leave a lot to be desired. The market is very limited and it can even be argued none of the options are a bonafide top four piece. The trade market is probably a much better and more attractive market to explore.
That's where things really open up for the Sabres. We've heard about the confirmed interest in Carolina defenseman Brett Pesce. Noah Hanifin is not re-signing in Calgary and will likely see a scenic change this offseason. Dante Fabbro might not be in Nashville's long-term plans. Matt Grzelcyk and Mike Reilly could be cap casualties for Boston. The options are endless.
Then there are pipe dream options that the Sabres should be all over if they were to become available. Chris Tanev, Dylan DeMelo, Evan Bouchard, etc. all come to mind.
We're going to hear the Sabres in all sorts of discussions for a defenseman. You'll probably see their name thrown into the Erik Karlsson conversation every now and then as well. Whatever happens, I'd be pretty confident in saying that the Sabres will see at least one new face in the locker room come October which will (hopefully) alleviate some of their defensive woes.
Goalies
Finally, now for what I think is the most key addition the Sabres will need to make this offseason: adding another goaltender. The goaltending situation this past season was a bit of a carousel, and it's pretty safe to say if it had even been slightly better, the Sabres likely would've made the postseason.
Eric Comrie was the marquee signing of last offseason, but over the entire season, he would only play 19 games for the team, whether that was due to injuries or just losing his spot.
Craig Anderson was the only real steady presence that the team had from start to finish, which is incredible when you take his age into consideration. However, while he gave the Sabres the chance to win whenever he played, his starts were very spread out because of such age.
And then you've got Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. If you were to describe his 26 games started this past season, "inconsistent" is likely the best word to do so. He started off very well, stealing some games for the team through December and January, even earning himself "NHL Rookie of the Month" for the month of January. However, that hot start quickly dissipated and he was largely unreliable for the back half of his games.
This all culminated in the arrival of Devon Levi. While the team was on the brink of elimination, the Sabres rode Levi until the end of the season, and he was fantastic in the majority of games he played. While not perfect, he had his fair share of show-stopping moments that gave a glimpse into the bright future he has with the organization.
With this strong start into the league, Devon Levi has quickly asserted himself as all but a lock for the Sabres' opening night lineup. While it's definitely exciting, expectations should be tempered for both the fanbase and the Sabres' organization as a whole.
Levi may very well be the franchise goaltender the team has been searching for ever since Ryan Miller was dealt in 2014, but his path has to be paved right. At the end of the day, he is 21 years old and has played a total of seven games in the NHL. While the sky is the limit for him, the Sabres can't go into next season expecting him to start 50-60 games; they would be playing with fire.
And with Levi being a lock for the team next season, I'd argue it would be insane to run it back with either Comrie/Luukkonen as his partner, and even more insane if they returned to a three-man rotation. The Sabres NEED to find a veteran goalie for Levi to tandem with next season.
I know there are believers in Lukkonnen out there in the Sabres fanbase, and even some others that think Comrie deserved a fairer shake, but for those fans, I'm sorry, but with the expectations that the Sabres will have for next season, they just can't justify not looking to upgrade the second goalie spot.
When evaluating how the organization should search for Levi's partner, look at it like this. You should have the mindset that Devon Levi is your 1B goalie next season. That is NOT to say he can't overtake the crease by season's end, but go into the offseason thinking you need to find a goalie better than him, should he face his expected rookie bumps.
Now, the avenues to do this are plentiful in either direction, whether the Sabres want to go the trade or free agency route. The reported interest in trading for Connor Hellebuyck should make any fan giddy, Carter Hart remains a high-ticket name they've been connected to, and John Gibson's name has been floating around the team for what feels like years now.
As for free agency, they likely steer clear of a high-ticket name like Tristan Jarry, but Freddy Andersen, Antti Ranta, Semyon Varlamov, and Adin Hill are all names that would make a ton of sense for that 1A role.
While a top-four defenseman is arguably the biggest need for the Sabres as it stands, finding a bonafide starting goalie to have WITH a promising Devon Levi would help with the growing defensive pains of the youngest team in the NHL. Smart additions on the backend would obviously help, but a great goalie duo can mask underlying defensive weakness.
If Kevyn Adams can find a way for the Sabres to turn their biggest weakness into a strength, then you might just see this team take off next season.
Closing Thoughts
In the offseason preview last season, my gut feeling was that Kevyn Adams was going to trust the youth for the following season, and that prediction turned out to be true. For this offseason, my gut is telling me that Adams is going to make a statement.
Heading into last season, you still didn't quite know who the core pieces of this team were. Sure, you had a pretty decent idea of who it would be, but you still needed another season to evaluate.
Now? Kevyn Adams knows who his core is. Some are already inked long term, and more will be added to the list this summer. At this point, it's about adding to that group and surrounding them with the pieces that will help take them to that next level, and I think Adams is going to that.
It's obviously not time to go all-in, but the time for waiting is over. It's time for the Sabres to make the moves that will ultimately set them up to be the next powerhouse in the NHL.
Until that happens, as always, Go Sabres.
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