It's no secret that the last two months of last season helped build some serious optimism for the Buffalo Sabres moving forward. From the Vegas game onwards, they finished the season 14-7-3, which put them at an above 100-point pace over a full 82-game season. All of this done without star AHL rookies Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka, and only a short eight-game sample size from number one overall pick Owen Power. Needless to say, with the improvements on the ice coming from a still relatively barebones roster (at least compared to what they will soon be) and the pieces coming up, it wasn't too far-fetched to imagine that the Sabres offseason would be rather uneventful.
Which is exactly what happened. With the only major additions being Ilya Lyubushkin and Eric Comrie, it's clear that the organization is trusting its in-house pieces to take on the league next season. However, with the lack of outside pieces being added, teams around the Sabres inevitably got better themselves. And most unfortunate, is that the Sabres' own division likely saw the biggest boost in overall improvements, with teams such as Ottawa and Detroit making headlines for their additions and Boston giving it one last go with their aging core.
The path to playoffs has not been made any easier, although I think we've been made aware of that the past 11 years. However, it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility for the Sabres to sneak in next season. Not at all. It will just require a numerous amount of things to go their way all at once.
So let's take a look at what we think what needs to happen next season for the Sabres to break the longest playoff drought in league history.
1) The roster stays healthy
Yes, I know, shocking. The Sabres need to stay healthy to make the playoffs, what a groundbreaking point to raise.
However, it's still probably the most important thing that this team needs to go right for them. Within the first three weeks of last season, the Sabres lost all of Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, and Anderson for prolonged periods, which no doubt contributed to their downward spiral. As the season went on, it only got worse, with Subban, UPL, Miller, Butcher, Caggiula, and Quinn all being injured at points. Even Tuch should've been available for the roster as early as November.
In all, over 550 games were lost to injury last season, which is a staggering number. It's no coincidence that when the team finally became just about as healthy as they could be, they saw their best stretch of the season. Other than injuries to Okposo and Anderson for the last few games of the season, no real major player had to sit out for an injury.
A lot has to go right for the Sabres to make the playoffs, but all it will take is something as simple as injury trouble to derail those hopes immediately. Hopefully, for the first time in over a decade, luck can be on their side.
2) One of WSH, PIT, or BOS finally fall off
For the past 15 years, these three teams have been constantly in the playoff mix and consistently securing spots in the postseason. They've been the three model organizations for the past decade when it comes to keeping the contention window open, always continuing to build around their franchise players by replenishing the youth within.
However, while they've been able to stave it off for the better part of five years now, the time is drawing very near for these teams' windows to finally close. Neither the Capitals nor Pens have made it past the first round since 2018 and the Bruins haven't made it past the second round since 2019, with each of these clubs falling short in the first round this past season.
An end of an era is inevitably coming for all of these teams. Marchand is 34, Crosby is 35, Ovechkin, Malkin, & Krejci are 36, and Bergeron is 37. Time is undefeated, and it's soon going to be time when these guys can't carry the burden of carrying their rosters to the playoffs, it's just a matter of when.
Teams like Ottawa, Detroit, New Jersey, Columbus, and the Isles are all likely going to be involved within the playoff race, so it's obviously a given to say that the Sabres have to be a better team than them. However, what makes their path immediately easier is if a team that's been a lock for the past decade and a half falls off and makes a spot available. Not to mention, head-to-head matchups get easier.
The good news is that it could be any one of them. Washington may be without Nicklas Backstrom permanently, Pittsburgh lost key pieces in Evan Rodrigues, Mike Matheson, & John Marino, and Boston is without Brad Marchand, Matt Gryzlek, and Mike Reilly to start the season. Not to mention, the aforementioned subject of aging getting the better of these cores.
The way I see it, one of those teams being completely out of the race provides the Sabres with the boost in the race they'll need to make the playoffs.
3) Eric Comrie or UPL provide the roster with .915 sv% goaltending
It might be called redundant to say that the Sabres need to have good goaltending in order to be competitive, but the reality is that's what needs to happen. Even though he provided slightly below average goaltending, it's no coincidence that when Craig Anderson went down early in the season the losses began piling up.
Even just average goaltending is all the team needs in order to seriously compete, which is exactly what we saw down the final stretch. The Sabres themselves said they felt like they had a chance to win every time Craig stepped in the crease, and even Tokarski mixed in some very good outings to close the year.
Unfortunately, Craig isn't 26 years old and in the prime of his career, but rather 42 and already a once retiree. His return to the Sabres this season will be nothing more than as a backup that can hopefully give them 30 good games. The Sabres are going to NEED one of their two other options in net to take the starting job by the reigns and carry it to the promise land.
Comrie is no doubt going to be the one given all the opportunity in the world to do so. He was clearly signed to be given the chance to be the starting goalie come night one, as he's never really gotten a fair shake in that position, and showed some serious promise last year after posting some of the best advanced metrics by a goaltender in the entire league in the 19 games he played in.
However, just because he's likely being given the keys to the bus to start next year, doesn't mean that Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen can't emerge himself as the starting goalie to-be next season. That said, barring a monster preseason or an injury to Comrie/Anderson, it's all but a done deal that UPL will start the season down in Rochester. The first year of his newly-signed two-year contract is two-way, and this is his last year as wavier-exempt player, so the cards are stacked against him.
Adams has made it clear many times over the past few months that he's communicated to UPL they still believe in him, but his time to make something of himself is wearing thin. He's obviously had some big injury trouble over the past few seasons, but his play at multiple points has also been very disappointing.
He's 23 now, there's no more room for excuses, it's time for him to show that he's ready for an NHL job by dominating down in Rochester. The defensive core in front of him is looking much better on paper than it was last season, so there's no excuse he can't perform exceptionally well.
Plus, it's also clear that Anderson's body is feeling the effects of age, as we saw him get injured multiple times last season, so it's a pretty safe bet to assume that UPL will get his chance up in the NHL at some point this season. He needs to take advantage of that in a big way if he's to have a future with the Sabres, AND if they hope to possibly make a playoff push.
The Sabres best stretch last season was done with below average goaltending:
Just imagine what they could do with some consistency. Point being, if UPL or Comrie can provide really good goaltending for the Sabres (.915 and up), it'll solve a lot of problems for a club as young as they are.
4) Tage Thompson HAS to be a 1C
To say Tage Thompson was a surprise last season would be the understatement of the century. He more than doubled his career goal total prior to that point in just one season, and did it in very convincing fashion.
However, with this huge breakout that occurred, it's not too hard to imagine that some regression is in order. Tage shot 15.0%, which is actually less than a lot of the top goal scorers in the league, but it's nearly twice as high as his career high percentage was to that point. Obviously, this is a completely different player now, but the point is that he may not pot as many goals as last season.
However, my belief is that Tage needs to still be a true #1 center in order for this team to have a chance at the playoffs. When you have someone firing on all cylinders like Tage was last year night in and night out, it makes that battle that much easier.
From March 10th onwards, Tage had 26 points in 24 games, clearly leading the offensive charge for the stretch run. That level of play is going to be a necessity for the entire season next year. This roster can't be wondering who is going to provide the crux of top line production for the whole year. Tage has to establish that he's exactly what he showed to be last season.
Additionally, the roster having a player such as that creates a HUGE trickle down effect for the younger players. Cozens or Krebs could be on the verge of huge breakouts as centers, but they also might not be, so it's important that they're kept in supporting roles to slowly ease them into the star players they hopefully become.
I'm not asking for him to continue to develop in to a point-per-game player, but his play driving and offensive impacts have to be on a similar level to that of other top line centers in the league, and he has to stay in that 65-75 point range.
His newly minted $50 million contract comes with expectations, and he has to rise to get those expectations if the Sabres are to make it to the 16-team dance.
5) Rasmus Dahlin gives the team a full 82-game season
Feels like Groundhog Day saying this once again, but yes, Rasmus Dahlin has to emerge as an elite defenseman for a FULL 82-game season. It's happened every time the past three seasons, where Dahlin has gotten off the season very slow but finished strong, with last season arguably being the worst case of this, climaxing with trade debates among the fanbase in November. Thankfully, as we all know, Dahlin was a bonafide stud post-All Star break, and was living up to his number one overall status as the team thrived.
For the fourth year in a row, we have to emphasize that this trend cannot continue, but most importantly this year if the team truly has playoff aspirations. It's been talked about in the fanbase as points this season, but it does seem like the Sabres are adapting the Nashville Predators model of building the most stacked defense in the league imaginable.
However, the success of this model depends on the player that most people will agree should be the best of the bunch in Dahlin. He has to show beyond doubt that he's a a top-15 defenseman in this league, and have a year where he's being talked about as a potential Norris candidate. Not saying he has to be a finalist, but he needs to make a compelling case.
It's time. It's time for Dahlin to hit that threshold that's been talked about ever since he dominated the SHL as a 16-year-old. I'm talking a 65+ point season, where he takes advantage of having the best forward group he's ever played with put around him, with limitless options to create with; both at even strength and on the power play.
Maybe it's a tall order to ask, but if the Sabres are going to make the playoffs, then Dahlin will be required to put his name alongside Cale Makar and Adam Fox as one of the best young defenseman in hockey.
6) Power and Quinn have to make an IMMEDIATE impact
Owen Power, Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka. Those are without a doubt the big three in the Sabres' prospect system currently. It's pretty much a guarantee that all three are going to be playing for the Sabres at some point this season.
However, considering how crowded the forward group has gotten as a whole, it might be safe to assume that one of Quinn or Peterka may not start with the team, and I'm willing to bet Peterka is the odd man out.
With that occurring, I feel that Quinn and Power have to be able to make a seamless transition to the NHL over a full 82-game season. They've both shown really positive signs in their short stints last season, but they have to be able to replicate that for the whole NHL schedule. To put it bluntly, both of them need to be directly involved in the Calder race, very similar to what Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond did last year for the Red Wings.
Power is already going to be receiving top-four minutes, and Quinn will probably see a bunch of his time on the second line. Couple this with the fact these two will be seeing consistent power play time, they're both going to be given the opportunity to make this type of impact.
However, that impact NEEDS to be made. You're likely talking a 40+ point season from Power, and a 25+ goal season from Quinn. If the lineup gets this type of boost from their marquee rookies right away, then being a part of the playoff race seems realistic.
7) Victor Olofsson scores 25+ goals
Outside of his dreadful 31-game goal-less drought, Victor Olofsson was on a 40 goal pace this past season. We all saw how impactful he was in the lineup down the stretch, with his top tier power play production returning, AND alongside it he made huge steps in his 5v5 game, being able to find the back of the net and dish it to his line mates at even strength.
With his strong start and finish to the season, it's interesting to think about what could've been if he'd never gotten injured. This season we have to see what that would've been like.
Over that last 24-game stretch of the season, Olofsson scored 11 goals and 23 points, which was second most in both categories during that time. All of this while only averaging about 14:45 minutes per game, which is less than all of Thompson, Tuch, Skinner, Okposo, Mittelstadt, and Cozens, showing how he was able to contribute significantly while getting ice time equaling a depth player.
Given that his role is likely going to be very similar, and that even more offensive talent is going to be placed around him, I don't see why a bench mark of 25 goals is too hard to conceive. If he was never playing injured last year, he would've snoozed to that total.
A lack of true second and third line depth scoring has haunted the Sabres over the past seven seasons, so it's vital that a player like Olofsson can legitimize the middle of the lineup. Plus, if Owen Power's chemistry with Brendan Brisson on Michigan's power play was any preview of what's to come, then I think him and Olofsson are going to get along very well on that second unit.
8) Rasmus Asplund repeats his Selke impacts
When Asplund received three votes for the Selke, it came as a bit of a shock fans. Not that it was unwarranted, absolutely not, but just rather unexpected that a number of official NHL vote casters gave him the credit he deserved.
Last season, Asplund had an unbelievable defensive season, but didn't have close to the offensive production that players who generally get voted in favor of score. However, seeing him get some of the recognition that he deserves is great, not only because it's showing how analytics are more and more being respected around the league, but also because it means that the Sabres likely recognize this too with their ever growing analytics crew, meaning Asplund will be allowed to keep playing this type of style.
On a roster that is full of players that lean more on offense than defense, a presence like Asplund's can do wonders for balancing a roster build. Especially after Zemgus Girgensons went down with an injury midseason, we saw just how vital Asplund's defensive prowess meant to certain players in the forward group.
No matter whose wing he was thrown onto, Asplund had a positive effect on that lines play. It's no secret that just about every player on the roster did better in both ends of the ice when Asplund was out there with them, as opposed to without.
He's such a unique player in this regard, but it makes him one of the most important players on the team. If Asplund regresses and returns to the player he was during Krueger's two seasons, then the overall quality of the team is going to decrease as a result.
Like we said, given that a majority of players on the roster have shown that they aren't the most capable defensively (Thompson, Skinner, Olofsson, Mittelstadt, Krebs), with players such as Quinn & Peterka are making their first strides into the NHL, it's vital that Asplund can continue his performance to help alleviate the inevitable defensive struggles coming with a young team.
A lot has to go right for the Sabres to make the playoffs, but all it will take is something as simple as injury trouble to derail those hopes immediately. Hopefully, for the first time in over a decade, luck can be on their side.
As always, Go Sabres.
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