With the NHL Draft a week away, we decided to throw in a late mock offseason to pass the time. With many of these, you’ll often see a lot of player and pick movement to make it much more fun. For this version, we’re going to try and put together an offseason that keeps most of this team together.
Last season ended on a real high note, and it’s no secret that there’s a good chance the Sabres could make a minimal amount of moves, so I’m going try to stay grounded in this approach.
What I am going to do is try and improve the roster for next season without breaking up the good vibes train that ended last season. More specifically, I'm going to stay away from trading either Casey Mittelstadt or Victor Olofsson. I know that might make things a bit less interesting, but I think we have to understand that this is a real possibility. Plus, I think there's a way that this team can pretty much stay intact, while also adding a few pieces to possibly help fuel a playoff push.
With that out of the way, let's dive into this.
Pending UFAs
As it stands right now, the Sabres have 12 pending UFAs that would have to be at the very least considered to be resigned:
- Vinnie Hinostroza
- Colin Miller
- Will Butcher
- Mark Jankowski
- Mark Pysyk
- Craig Anderson
- Dustin Tokarski
- Malcom Subban
- Aaron Dell
- Cody Eakin
- John Hayden
- Drake Caggiula
It's no secret that most of these guys are gonna go. We thank them for their services this season, but it's just the way the business goes. However, there are a few guys that will be sticking around.
Re-Sign Malcolm Subban (2-years / 800k AAV)
It's no secret that Malcolm Subban has completely embraced Buffalo over the past year. Despite only playing in four games this past season before getting hurt, he's been totally enriching himself in the community. From attending Rochester playoff games or traveling to away Bandits games, it's been awesome to see him fully embrace being a part of the city.
Singing the National Anthem before the last game of the season was the cherry on top. Malcolm has earned himself the opportunity to stay in Buffalo's system for the next few years. While the plan would be to have him slotted in as Rochester's starter, he would be 100% be the first call-up throughout the season. Considering the injury history of someone like UPL, it wouldn't surprise me to see him up here rather frequently.
Re-Sign Mark Jankowski (1-year, 850k AAV)
His time in Buffalo was rather brief, but Mark Jankowski is definitely a guy that I want to keep around in the system. He only played 19 games with Buffalo, but he really shined during his time down in Rochester. He scored 27 points in 32 games during the regular season, and another 7 in 10 games during the playoffs. He showed he could play with high-end talent down there, playing with guys like Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka.
I think he's a nice guy to have in your system as a 4C option/potential call-up. It never hurts to have more center depth in your organization.
Re-Sign Craig Anderson (1-year, $2 million AAV)
Yes, that's right. In this mock offseason, Craig Anderson decided that he wants to give it another go and play next year. Anderson suffered injuries early last year and had more to end the season, which has caused him to feel like he didn't have proper closure on his career and brought the desire to play next season.
Kevyn Adams has made it clear that the Sabres are more than okay with Anderson returning for another season, it really just comes down to whether he wants to play or not.
So, based on how positive he was around the team last season, and just ensure that the Sabres reach the cap floor, I've rewarded him with a nice raise of $2 million.
It's no secret that this move would raise some eyebrows should it come true. For goalies that played at least 30 games this season, Anderson was ranked the 10th worst in the league in goals saved above expected with -8.7 (per MoneyPuck.com). There's more than meets the eye with re-signing him, but I'm going to wait until after free agency to explain what my plan is.
RFA's
Heading into the next few months, here are the Sabres current most notable RFA's to be signed:
- Victor Olofsson
- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
- Jacob Bryson
- Arttu Ruotsalainen
- Brett Murray
- Brandon Biro
I have an interest in re-signing all of these guys, so let's get right into it.
Sign Victor Olofsson (3-year, $5 million)
Olofsson is no doubt the biggest decision from the list of players above. His shot is not something that I really want to lose and he showed dimensions to his game last season which makes me want to see what he can do over a full and healthy campaign. Not to mention, how he produces when he's got Owen Power feeding him one-timers on the second power play unit.
It's either re-sign or trade him, and I chose to re-sign him. We saw last offseason what the market was for RFA wingers when Buchnevich and Reinhart were traded, so I opted not to dip into that market this offseason.
If Olofsson disappoints next season or is leapfrogged in the depth chart by Quinn or Peterka, then we can revisit trading him, but the advantage then is that he'll actually have a term on his contract. It's similar to how the Bruins extended Jake Debrusk last season to give teams inquiring more insurance. It's always easier to get value for players with term than without.
As for the contract itself, I think it's a good deal for all involved. Evolving Hockey projects that Olofsson will receive around $4.7 million for 3 years, so I caved in a bit and decided to round that up to an even $5 million. I can't imagine that Adams has any intentions of signing Olofsson long-term, so I've compensated a shorter-term with a bigger bump in pay.
Sign Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen (3-year, $1.5 million)
The term might surprise you on this one, so let me explain myself. I sort of look at UPL like I looked at Tage Thompson a few years ago. Both have had rather limited stints in the NHL, while having some success in the AHL, but they both need to start showing signs that they can be contributors in the NHL.
Thompson was 25 days away from turning 23 when he signed his 3-year, $1.4 million AAV contract back in 2020; UPL is 23 now. The Thompson signing has worked out better than anyone could have ever imagined it, but it was a smart signing back then too. Adams was banking on the possibility that Thompson could become a top-six contributor. Obviously, this season he became that and then some, but the smart part about that contract was that if he didn't turn into anything of value, then Adams could just bury his low AAV in the minors without seriously affecting the Sabres' cap situation.
That's why I've decided to give UPL an exact replica of Thompson's contract. Next season, he's really got something to prove. He needs to show that he has a future in the NHL and that the injuries aren't something that really need to be worried about moving forward. He finished the season really strong in Rochester, ending with a .926 sv% in his last six full games down the stretch while the Amerks were pushing for the playoffs. However, in the last game, he got injured once again.
Just like how Adams was taking a chance on Thompson's development, I'm taking one on UPL's. This contract gives the Sabres the opportunity to have a bargain deal if UPL turns into a bonafide NHL goalie, but also lets them hide him in the minors should he continue to struggle.
Sign Jacob Bryson (1-year, $1 million AAV)
This season is very important for Bryson. With the emergence of Mattias Samuelsson, Bryson is now currently fourth on the depth chart for left-handed defenseman in the organization. Even if you take into account that Dahlin may be shifting to the right, Bryson is third, but with Ryan Johnson creeping up behind him too. Bryson will have to up his game if he's to have a future with the Sabres, so here I gave him a 1-year, prove-it deal.
Sign Arttu Ruotsalainen (1-year, $900k)
R2 is a fascinating case. Towards the end of the 2020-21 season, it seemed like he was finding himself a nice spot in the lineup while playing on the wing with Dylan Cozens as his center. However, when training camp came this past September, Granato decided to shift him to play center. He ended up making the initial opening night roster, but it was clear he was having some growing pains while playing the position in the NHL. Eventually, he was sent down and had a really nice season in Rochester with 51 points in 57 games.
Rumors began to swirl that he was potentially headed back to Europe after this season which wasn't really a surprise. However, R2 more than ended the season on a high note, as he was a key contributor in the Amerks' playoff run, scoring 12 points in 10 games, eight of which were goals. At the end-of-season press conference, Arttu stated that he would like to play in the NHL as a member of the Sabres. It will be interesting to see if he can somehow work his way into the lineup next season.
Sign Brett Murray (1-year, $900k)
I liked Murray's game while he was here in Buffalo and it's a shame they ended up sending him down. The Murray-Cozens-Okposo line carried a 54.8 xGF% in their 115 minutes together (per MoneyPuck.com) and showed he had the potential to crack an NHL lineup. He's another guy to create some good internal competition for a roster spot, so I gave him another 1-year deal.
Sign Brandon Biro (1-year, 800k)
Biro has turned himself into a very quality player. Originally being a camp invite back in 2018, he's developed into a good contributor in the AHL and could easily make his way into an NHL lineup someday. He's handed another 1-year deal to continue on his development path.
Trades
This is where the fun begins, well kind of. Not being able to move Olofsson or Mittelstadt means that you're going to be limited in the moves you make. However, I do have one in store.
CAR Receives: 2023 2nd Round Pick (BUF)
BUF Receives: Rights to Ethan Bear
I would absolutely love to get Ethan Bear on the Sabres, he's one of the most undervalued defensemen in the whole league in my opinion. Bear definitely had a tougher year in Carolina this season, but his impact remained positive and it also came out that he was struggling with some health issues.
Bear is a very good offensive defenseman, who is no slouch in his own end. He took a step back in that regard this season, but based on the health issues, I'd be more than confident in saying that he's gonna bounce back.
The great thing about him is that he can play anywhere in your top six. As is stated, he played some of the most minutes in the entire league back in the 2019-20 season and faired very well. This past season he was obviously in a much more limited role, but the great thing is that didn't affect him very much, and he was still able to put up good underlying numbers.
Something that I want to point out is a comparison between Bear's impacts and the impacts of Devon Toews prior to be acquired by the Colorado Avalanche. Just like Bear, Toews was an undervalued guy when he was a part of the Islanders, before being given a greater role with Colorado and breaking out.
Bear's impacts from 2019-2022 are pretty similar to Toews' impacts from his first two seasons with the Islanders. I'm not saying that Bear is going to suddenly turn into one of the best defensemen in the league, but I am saying that some signs point to him having the ability in him.
I figure that a 2nd round pick is good value for Carolina considering he's an RFA. Adam Fox was traded by Carolina for a 2nd & 3rd round pick back in 2019, so I think this is fairly good value. Preferably, Bear is only worth a 3rd or 4th, but considering there's most likely a multitude of teams interested, I figured I had to up the price a bit.
Free Agency
This is where I see Adams doing most of his work in this scenario. He's gonna try and use the $40 million in cap space to his advantage. He won't go on a shopping spree, but he's gonna fill the holes that need to be filled using his resources.
Ethan Bear (4-year, $3.5 million AAV)
After acquiring him, I immediately extend Ethan Bear to a team-friendly AAV with term. At his worst, Bear is going to be a very undervalued guy that always has good impacts. At his best, he's going to develop in a stud right-handed defenseman.
I have no problem with giving him this deal right off the bat.
Johan Larsson (1-year, $2.0 million AAV)
That's right, Larry's back! It's a nostalgia tour next season.
In all seriousness, a return to Buffalo for Johan Larsson makes a ton of sense. It's a position of need with Cody Eakin leaving, and what he brings to the table is something that the Sabres definitely could use. His numbers this past year while in both Arizona and Washington were like any other. Larsson continued to be dominant in the defensive end of the ice.
Since the Sabres are likely adding two players in Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka, who are not very sound defensively, to the group of Peyton Krebs, Casey Mittelstadt, and Victor Olofsson who are also not very good defensively, it makes since to bring him in as a strong defensive presence; one Rasmus Asplund can only do so much for a team. It would be very beneficial to bring in another defensive guru like Larsson to take a lot of responsibility away from the young players.
The idea here is that you likely reunite the LOG line, so that it can become the de facto shutdown line when protecting leads and trying to shelter the kids. Larsson and Girgensons are obviously very good on that side of the ice, and Okposo is no slouch either, so it would be smart to have that line take on most of the defensive zone deployments while the younger and more offsenive players get their starts in the offensive zone.
It's the perfect short-term, low-key move that doesn't roadblock any players in the system, and only helps to strengthen the weaknesses of the team.
P.K. Subban (2 years, $4.75 million AAV)
Here's the one that we've all been waiting for since the last game of the season. Signing Malcolm Subban has a correlating effect, as we're now picking up his brother as the marquee signing of the offseason.
While he's by no means the Norris-caliber player he was back in 2013, Subban is still a positive impact player. His first season after being acquired by New Jersey in 2019-20 was very rough, but ever since then he's had a slow progression back to respectability.
Many may think that Subban is washed, but that is simply not the case. He was still one of the best defensemen on the Devils this season, and in a more limited with talent around him, I believe he can continue his positive trend.
One stat that I'd like to mention is that Subban's most common partner on New Jersey this season was Ty Smith, who was one of the worst defensemen in the league (analytically) this season. In their 480 minutes together this season, they put up a 51.46 CF% and 54.05 xGF%. However, Ty Smith away from Subban dropped to 45.96 CF% and a 41.94 xGF%, showing just how much of a positive impact that PK had this season (per NaturalStatTrick.com).
Evolving Hockey projects that a 2-year deal for Subban will be about $3.5 million, so I added a bit of Buffalo tax there to entice him a little more. I decided on two years for a couple of reasons. I felt that's about how many really good years he could have left, but also it allows for the Sabres to possibly let him go in an offseason where they need to sign Dahlin & Power. It also makes it possible for PK & Malcolm to make a decision about their playing future together in the same offseason.
While many may focus on getting just one right-handed defenseman this offseason, I decided to go out and get two to really cement the D-core as one of the best up-and-coming groups in the whole league. I've got six bonafide NHL defensemen in Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, Jokiharju, Bear, and Subban. I'm more than confident that group can be in the upper echelon of the league as soon as next season.
Jack Campbell (3 years, $5.85 million AAV)
Here's the big pickup for the position of goaltender. Alongside Marc-Andre Fleury and Darcy Kuemper (should he hit Free Agency), Campbell is going to be one of the big three available for teams to try and sign.
Heading into the offseason, he is reportedly the Sabres' main target when it comes to goaltending, which is very encouraging to hear. Campbell no doubt had a very up and down year this season for the Leafs, as he started out as one of the hottest netminders in the entire league, but was one of the worst for the second half of the season.
While that may be discouraging to some, I don't feel like he's the goalie of the second half of the season. I don't feel like he's the goalie of the first half either Somewhere in the middle of that play, there's a very solid starting goaltender in there, and I think that's what Jack Campbell is.
He's probably not a Vezina-caliber, .930 sv% guy, but he's also not the sub .900 guy he was for the second half of the year. His career save percentage is .916; which is not spectacular and it's not horrible either, Campbell is just a really steady goalie.
That's not to say that the Sabres would be 'settling' for Campbell. What the team needs now is some stability between the pipes for the next few seasons until the goalie pipeline is ready, and Campbell provides that. UPL needs time to grow in the NHL, Portillo needs development time in Rochester should he sign, and Levi needs a few seasons before he's ready to be put into the role of an NHL starter.
While Campbell's camp is likely looking for something longer-term, Adams has been adamant (pun not intended) that the team will not be looking for anything more than two years.
Hopefully, Campbell will see the opportunity in automatically being the starting goaltender in Buffalo for at least the next two seasons and accepts a shorter-term deal here. It might not be worth it to some, but it is to me to have the pipes solidified.
Plus, given how unpredictable goaltenders can be, Campbell can absolutely elevate his play to be one of the top goalies in the league. We saw him do it at the start of this season, and all of last year's covid-shortened season. According to MoneyPuck.com, Campbell was 7th in the entire league in goals saved above expected with 8.4 back in the 2020-21 season.
If Adams were to pull this signing off, I'd be more than happy with the current goalie situation.
Putting the Pieces Together
Now that the offseason has officially concluded, let's try to build our roster from here.
This is my 23-man roster to at least start the season. Here are some quick bullet points on the way that I constructed the lineup itself:
The first and third lines had some really good chemistry last year, not messing with that
The second line could be a mess defensively, but also very fun offensively
Fourth Line gives you that needed defensive presence
Dahlin starts on the right, but this core could be mixed in any way and it would still be in a good shape
I have a three-man goalie rotation; Campbell gets a 50-game load while UPL and Anderson split the remaining 32 accordingly
I really like how this turned out for a more low-key offseason. I didn't drastically shift the forward core, and the defensive core was majorly strengthened with Subban & Bear, with goaltending seeing a huge boost with Campbell being added. Plus having a three-man rotation (at least to start) could be beneficial for slowly increasing UPL's workload.
Also, yes, JJ Peterka doesn't make the opening night lineup, but I'm not too worried. Injuries are bound to happen and he's too good to stay out of the lineup for long. If he has an impressive enough camp or he heads down to Rochester and picks up right where he left off last year, then Granato will be able to find a spot for him in the lineup.
I'd say this roster is good enough for an 80+ point total. This team goes as far as its rookies, developing players, and goaltending takes them. If Quinn, Peterka, and Power all become immediate contributors, and Campbell can give them above-average goaltending, then this team could be on the fringes of something special.
Conclusion
An offseason like this is something that I would welcome and half-expect. The summers that will require the front office to make fairly major additions are going to come in the very near future, but this summer doesn't have to be one of them. The moves here were meant to keep the good vibes together while also adding to what already exists.
I hope you enjoyed this installment, stay tuned for the next one!
Go Sabres!
Charts and Data posted in this article are from JFreshHockey, Evolving-Hockey, Money Puck, Natural Stat Trick, and CapFriendly.
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