This past Saturday night, Jeff Marek got the everyone talking after speculating on Hockey Night in Canada about whether or not the Buffalo Sabres were to be a dark horse team in the Jakob Chychrun sweepstakes.
While there had previously been rumors of Adams inquiring about the 24-year-old defender (most notably back at this year's entry draft), there hadn't really been any concrete confirmations that Adams was looking to upgrade the young blue line.
However, the morning after this report, Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News doubled down on this report, confirming that sources close to The Buffalo News say that Adams is very much in the trade talks.
And this reporting continued on Monday morning's 32 Thoughts Podcast with Marek and Friedman, where the two spent a considerable amount of time on the connection between the Sabres and Chychrun.
All in all, there is way too much smoke going on here to not come to the conclusion that the Sabres are very much interested in Chychrun's services. What it all comes down to is whether or not the Sabres will want to match the price the Coyotes are attempting to obtain.
So what exactly does Chychrun bring to the table? Does his age and contract fit in with the timeline of the Sabres? Are there any drawbacks to acquiring this big ticket player?
Let's break down exactly what the Sabres would be getting in Chychrun, the pros and cons of receiving his services, and throw out a couple of mock trades to have some fun.
The Player
Chychrun gaining the status as a high end defenseman was a slow build. Collecting 80 points in 234 games during his first four seasons in the NHL, Chychrun was slowly finding his place in the league on a very subpar Coyotes team. His underlyings were always very good, but he didn't quite have the big point totals to show for it just yet.
However, the 2020-21 Covid-shortened season changed that. Chychrun finally began to take his place among the elite in the league.
On a Coyotes team that finished 22nd overall, Chychrun exploded for an 18 goal, 41 point campaign in 56 games. That's a 26 goal, 60 point season over a full 82 games.
He was fantastic all season for a very middling roster, and was even rewarded with some Norris votes at the end of the season. This is the player that the Sabres would be hoping to get; THIS is peak-Chychrun.
I say that because last season was a bit of a step back for him.
His offense took a very big hit on a Coyotes team that finished second-last in the entire NHL. Compared to the monstrous pace he was on the previous season, Chychrun only accumulated seven goals and 21 points in 47 games.
On the bright side, his defensive metrics took a step, which is impressive considering the quality of his teammates. Not a terrible year, but there's no doubt he wasn't able to build on the previous year he had, and I wouldn't be surprised if this setback was part of the reason Chychrun still hasn't been moved.
Overall, if you're stepping back and looking at the bigger picture of Chychrun's career to date, he's always been a defensively responsible player, who's had intermittent flashes of offensive brilliance.
He's a strong, puck-moving defenseman that would be help the Sabres' defensive woes immensely if he were to be receiving 20 minutes a night compared to if they were going to Jacob Bryson or Ilya Lyubushkin. In the offensive zone, he provides some high volume shooting that gives the backend yet another weapon when in the opponent's end.
The Pros
As you would expect, the pros are plentiful when discussing a player of Chychrun's caliber joining the Sabres' roster.
Age
As weird as it may sound, 24-year-old Jakob Chychrun would immediately become the oldest member out of Dahlin, Samuelsson, and Power. With that said, he for sure matches the timeline of this ongoing rebuild. Other core guys like Thompson and Tuch already pass him in age, and I doubt many will see him as a true veteran presence.
He immediately fits right into this young bunch, and doesn't fall into that category of someone that is clearly brought in to be an experience, win-now player. He's a guy that can stick around for awhile if all goes well.
Contract
Chychrun's contract consists of a $4.6 million AAV. In today's NHL, and with the amount of cap space the Sabres currently possess, that is absolutely nothing and a bargain for what he potentially brings to the table.
At worst you're paying $4.6 million to a second-pair defenseman, which is pretty typical in today's NHL, and at best you have a potential top pairing defenseman locked down at a hilariously low cost for two seasons.
There aren't many value contracts like this available for trade in today's league, so it's a perfect chance to take advantage of it.
Fit
The flaws that exist within Chychrun's game can be limited with the usage he'd likely receive here. If the inconsistency issue persists, then that can be easily hid with sheltered minutes in a much lesser role.
He's not going to be tasked with being the number one defenseman on a bottom feeder anymore, he'd be a part of one of the best up and coming defensive cores in the entire NHL, and would likely be behind the Samuelsson-Dahlin pairing in the lineup.
These holes that have been identified in his game can be limited with less minutes and by playing with the most talented partners he's ever had in Dahlin, Power, or Samuelsson. Heck, you could even throw him back with old friend Ilya Lyubushkin if you wanted to.
Overall, the fit for him is perfect in Buffalo. With any other team that's inquiring, he'd likely be looked at as an immediate top pair player. In Buffalo, he can sit back on the second pairing and maximize his talents.
Rewriting History
You knew this one was coming. By making this move, Adams would immediately be making up for one of the worst draft decisions in Sabres history with the selection of Alex Nylander in 2016. Chychrun was sitting right there for the taking, and the Sabres went for a player that still currently resides in the AHL, and has the same points per game as 19-year-old Isak Rosén.
It's only destiny that Chychrun would come back to the place he rightfully belongs. History is clearly setting itself up to be corrected with an upcoming blockbuster, and I can't wait until this dark chapter of Sabres history is rightfully remedied.
The Cons
Make no mistake, I think the pros far outweigh the cons, but I think it's important to discuss the drawbacks that could exist should the Sabres make this move.
Term
While the AAV is an absolute bargain for the taking, the length of the contract is a tad off in terms of being in sync with the Sabres timeline. Chychrun is a UFA after the 2024-25 season, which will be a very interesting time in the Sabres rebuild.
Key players like Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka will be up for key extensions, and the team will hopefully in some sort of contention window. A player like Chychrun who willing be looking for the big payday of his career would likely be a challenging dilemma for a team that is clearly looking to sign team-friendly deals.
Sure, if Chychrun were to come in as essentially the number four defenseman and be left off the second powerplay in favor of Power, then it would likely bring down his dollar amount. However, I'd say chances are Chychrun is still a consistent 40 point player, and that is gonna go for a lot, especially in three years.
Injury History
This is the big one. Chychrun has had a really rough track record throughout his career. He's never played more than 70 games in a season, with the only "full" season played being the 56 games season in 2021.
Just to quickly recap: In 2016 he had shoulder surgery, in 2017 he had knee surgery, in 2018 he had surgery to repair a torn ACL, in 2019 he suffered a hip injury, and finally this past year he had ankle and wrist surgery over the summer (in which he's suffered a setback which sidelined him for even more weeks before finally returning recently).
That's Zach Bogosian levels of not being able to stay on the ice. Hopefully, this is where the bad stretch ends, but there's always the possibility that Chychrun continues his injury woes, which would be very frustrating if the Sabres were to give up a ransom for him.
Mock Trades
To end this, I'll throw out a few mock trades that I think are somewhat realistic.
If you haven't been following too closely, it is sounding like the trade will consist of two pieces of 1st round value and a roster player. Those 1st round pieces don't necessarily have to be 1st round picks, they can also be prospects recently drafted in the 1st round.
The blueprint seems to be the Brent Burns trade from 2011, as Marek alluded to in 32 Thoughts.
So I'll be trying to stick to this formula for these four mock deals.
Trade #1:
BUF Receives: Jakob Chychrun
ARI Receives: 2023 1st Round Pick (Top 10 Protected) + Isak Rosén + Casey Mittelstadt
The Sabres aren't going to pony up an unprotected 1st-round pick for this draft. Chances are it'll have some sort of protection on it, and I'd be willing to bet it'll be top 10 protected. So that's why in 3-out-of-4 of these mock trades that's the condition. Should the Sabres' 1st-round placement be within the top ten this season, the Coyotes would receives their 2024 1st-rounder unprotected.
Rosén has been having a very nice first season in North America with the Amerks, especially considering what he wen through last year. He fits the type of value the Coyotes are looking to get out of the 1st-round pieces, and the Sabres would still be sitting well should they lose him with Kulich, Savoie, Östlund, etc. in line.
Don't need to go too in deep on Mittelstadt, we all know how the fanbase sees him. In Arizona, Mittelstadt gets a fresh start and a larger role than here in Buffalo, and could still fit within the timeline of the Coyotes rebuild should he do well.
Trade #2:
BUF Receives: Jakob Chychrun
ARI Receives: 2023 1st Round Pick (Lottery Protected) + Noah Östlund + Jacob Bryson
The 1st-round pick here being lottery protected rather than top ten protected is a balancing of value with Jacob Bryson being the roster player in this trade.
Östlund is the prospect to go in this scenario. I would guess he has more value than Rosén given he's got a higher projected ceiling and the fact he plays center, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the Coyotes chase after him.
As for Bryson himself, the Coyotes receive a defenseman who could help eat up the minutes that Chychrun is leaving behind. As we all know, he's got experience playing top pair minutes, and just like Mittelstadt, he's young enough so that he could fit their timeline should everything go well.
Trade #3
BUF Receives: Jakob Chychrun
ARI Receives: 2023 1st Round Pick (Top 10 Protected) + Noah Östlund + Henri Jokiharju
Here's a familiar scenario with Henri Jokijarju being the roster player to go instead. I honestly would be surprised if Joki being the one to go in this deal. More than Mitts and Olofsson, I feel the organization thinks he's a part of what the Sabres are trying to build. Not a part of the main core, but still a piece they would more than prefer to keep around.
However, if he's the piece that makes this deal go through, I think there's a scenario where the trigger is pulled. You're obviously upgrading him right away, and there's other options for the third pair that would hopefully prevent the team longing for Joki's services.
Trade #4
BUF Receives: Jakob Chychrun
ARI Receives: 2023 1st Round Pick (Top 10 Protected) + Ryan Johnson + Erik Portillo + Victor Olofsson
This scenario really intrigues me, especially from the Coyotes side. Johnson does fall into that 1st-round value given his draft status from 2019, and he provides the Coyotes with a much needed defensive prospect, especially considering who they're shipping out.
Portillo is sort of a sweetener in this scenario. He's not having a great season for Michigan currently, but he's got a good enough track record to this point that should still give him value. As it stands right now, the Coyotes really don't have any exciting goaltending prospects in their system, so Portillo would immediately become their number one guy, and that's treatment he never received in Buffalo.
As for Olofsson, every General Manager knows what he brings to the table. The man puts up goals, even if the numbers say he shouldn't. His shot is one of a kind, and would immensely help an Arizona team that is desperate for some goal scoring. Sure, he doesn't exactly fit their timeline, but he's not some 30-year-old, and that shot will likely keep him in this league for years to come.
If Arizona is able to somehow guarantee that both Johnson and Portillo will sign, I could see this move causing them to think twice.
Conclusion
Jakob Chychrun becoming a member of the Sabres would be crowning jewel on the best up and coming defensive core in the entire NHL. I believe it would be akin to the Tampa Bay Lightning acquiring Ryan McDonagh in 2018. They had their stud top defenseman in Hedman (Dahlin), the highly-touted young defenseman beginning to make his impact in the league in Sergachev (Power), and the defensive stalwart that helped calm down play in Cernak (Samuelsson).
Of course I know there's plenty of differences between the players, but I think these situations do somewhat mirror each other. Either way, I'm all in for Jakob Chychrun. The Sabres need to upgrade their defense now, and there aren't many solutions in-house coming soon. So what better way to upgrade than to go out and get the biggest fish on the market?
We'll just have to see whether or not Adams is able to pull this move off, but either way I'm at the very least happy he's looking to add to this group in a big way.
As always, Go Sabres.
Comments