With the Stanley Cup Playoffs all wrapped up, the fun of the offseason begins for the Sabres. The NHL Entry Draft is in less than a week, with Free Agency following just a few days later, so buckle up, the fun is about to begin.
The blueprint for the Sabres seems relatively simple: the forward group is pretty much set, especially with the recent signings of Zemgus Girgensons, and Lukas Rousek, but the improvements need to come from goaltending and defense. And the Sabres have all the ability in the world to make such adjustments. They've got the cap space and they've got draft picks, it's time for Kevyn Adams to go to work.
They've had the ability to use such assets for a little while now, but the intrigue sets in here because for the first time in probably the decade, the Sabres' expectation will be to make the playoffs. They fell just short this season, but it's clear the group is ready to take that net step, all they need to do is fill the gaps.
So let's get right into it.
Pending UFAs
As it stands right now, here are each of the Sabres' pending UFAs:
- Vinnie Hinostroza
- Malcolm Subban
- Michael Houser
- Sean Malone
- Joseph Cecconi
- Austin Strand
Vinnie Hinostroza and Michael Houser will need to find new homes this summer. We'll miss the good vibes that they brought the past few seasons, but there is no longer enough room in the organization to justify keeping them around.
As for the re-signings?
Malcom Subban, Sean Malone, Joseph Cecconi, and Austin Strand will all be sticking around on AHL deals. The Amerks are coming off of a very successful playoff run, and I see no reason as to why any of these guys should be let go, especially in Malcolm Subban's case who was the reason Rochester made it as far as they did.
RFA's
Here are the Sabres' current pending RFA's:
- Tyson Jost
- Kale Clague
- Linus Weissbach
- Brett Murray
- Matej Pekar
Right off the bat, Brett Murray and Matej Pekar will both be walking. Pekar has never been able to find his stride down in Rochester and could use a fresh start. As for Murray, he's turning 25 this summer and could probably make an NHL roster someplace else, but Buffalo doesn't have that type of opening for him. Not to mention the "big power forward" role in Rochester could be taken as soon as next year with the addition of Oliver Nadeau.
Re-Sign Tyson Jost (1 year, $2.1 million AAV)
There's definitely cause for concern when it comes to Tyson Jost. His ice time shrank towards the end of the season and he received a couple of healthy scratches. One way to look at this is that the Sabres see Jost as an expendable player when it comes to working other guys into the lineup (such as Jiri Kulich) and they wouldn't be too worried if they ever lost him.
However, I think this would be a massive mistake. Jost was lost gold that the Sabres retrieved and carved out a crucial role for. Cheap bottom-six centers with two-way ability are not so easily found, and I think the Sabres would feel his absence should he not return.
So I've decided to extend him for the next three seasons. Evolving Hockey projects that Jost's most likely 1-year contract will be worth $2.025 million, so I decided to round up and give him the $2.1 million. The Sabres will have a cheap option in their bottom six for another year, and hopefully, Jost can prove that he's worth having around for the future.
Re-Sign Kale Clague (1 year, $900k AAV)
Clague had a very strong start with Buffalo back in the fall, but tapered off as the season went on. He didn't get many games down the stretch, especially after the acquisition of Riley Stillman, but overall he still impressed me. I don't know if he's an NHL regular, but he's definitely a guy that could be useful in the organization.
With the departure of Lawrence Pilut, Rochester could use another LHD in a prominent role, especially if Ryan Johnson has any sort of a slow start next season.
Re-Sign Linus Weissbach (1 year, $800k AAV)
Just like Brett Murray, Weissbach could very well already be in the NHL. He was a preseason standout last September, and had another great season in Rochester this year. He'll try to crack the roster once again this fall, competing with the likes of Jiri Kulich and Lukas Rousek.
Trades
Ok, now for the fun part.
CGY Receives: Henri Jokiharju + 2024 2nd Round Pick + 2023 4th Round Pick
BUF Receives: Chris Tanev + 2025 5th Round Pick
There's no doubt that Kevyn Adams will be putting emphasis on improving the defensive corps this offseason. The Sabres' top four is nearly locked in place for the coming years, but they are still missing that key fourth piece to round out the group. Despite the potential that he possesses, Henri Jokiharju just hasn't cut it as the final man of that group. He may only be 23, but he just hasn't taken those steps you would like to see from him.
So that's why I'm looking to upgrade that spot directly right here. Calgary is in a bit of a weird situation. Their big core swap with Huberdeau/Tkachuk didn't work out so well last season, and it's resulted in a complete turnover with management and coaching, and possibly even a rebuild on the horizon. It's already come out that all of Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, and Michael Backlund will not be re-signing in Calgary after next season, so you have to wonder who else may fall into that group.
I think (and hope) that Chris Tanev falls into that question mark area. He'll be a UFA after next season like the previously mentioned players, and he's 33 years old, which isn't the ideal type of age if Calgary is going to be forced into a rebuild/retool here. While he's a tremendous defensive D-man, it would be logical if Calgary wanted to get return on him instead of possibly losing him for free at the end of next year; and in that scenario, Buffalo should be all over him.
You could argue that Chris Tanev has been the best defensive defenseman in all of hockey the past few seasons, as he's consistently put up some of the best shutdown numbers in the entire league. The (probably unlikely) situation in which he becomes available would be a must-have for the Sabres.
In this deal, I've given Calgary a younger/cheaper RHD that they could try to develop in their own system, along with a 2nd and a 4th to sweeten the deal. In return, the Sabres get the veteran, shutdown defenseman they've been looking for. Given Tanev's age and contract status, I do think this deal is fair in value for both teams.
ANA Receives: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Jacob Bryson, 2023 3rd Round Pick (LAK)
BUF Receives: John Gibson (25% Retained)
Now for the big goalie addition. With the Sabres having some of the worst goaltending in the league this past season, it would be a huge risk for them to run it back with Eric Comrie/Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen alongside a 21-year-old Devon Levi. It makes perfect sense to try and acquire a veteran goalie to play alongside Levi and lighten his load of games.
While the rumors of Connor Hellebuyck and Carter Hart are certainly fun, the Sabres could very be priced out of those runnings if their acquisition costs are exorbitant. So, turning their attention to someone like John Gibson could make a lot of sense. Gibson looks to be finally on his way out of Anaheim this offseason, and while as of now Pittsburgh looks like the preferred destination, Buffalo is reportedly a place he'd consider waiving his NTC to, according to The Athletic.
Gibson is a bit of a controversial figure, as his reputation doesn't quite live up to the numbers he's produced in Anaheim over the past few seasons. Yes, he's played behind some of the worst defensive groups in the league during that time, but his isolated results aren't show-stopping. There's a reason his price isn't exactly defined like Hart's or Hellebuyck's: teams aren't "buying" him per se, but acquiring him in hopes he returns to form.
I don't believe he's completely hopeless, however. His starting load would have to be lessened (which is to be expected with Devon Levi as his partner), and the Sabres' defensive structure would be improved a sizable amount from last season.
As we mentioned, the price for Gibson isn't exactly defined, but I think we can get somewhat of a rough idea of what it could look like. Matt Murray was in a very similar situation last offseason where he hadn't been himself in about four years and was on a very expensive deal. After rejecting an initial deal that would've sent him to Buffalo, he was finally moved to Toronto for a 3rd and a 7th, with 25% of his deal being retained (albeit with 1 year remaining).
With that framework set up, I gave Anaheim the 3rd round pick along with Luukkonen and Bryson to thank them for retaining salary. Lukas Dostal is the only NHL-caliber goalie under contract for the Ducks currently, so UPL would give them another young option to battle it out in the crease with. They also only have three defenseman signed for next season, so Bryson gives them another body there.
Retaining 25% for the next four years might seem like too much for Anaheim, but the way I see it, their window probably doesn't open until around that time, and even then they shouldn't be maxing out the cap completely by that point in time.
CHI Receives: Victor Olofsson
BUF Receives: 2023 4th Round Pick
I hear Connor Bedard is looking for some wingers?
In all seriousness, it sounds like Chicago is looking for some players to put around their new franchise star, and to help them hit the cap floor. Luckily, Olofsson fits both categories. He'll sleepwalk his way to 20 goals and could find himself flirting with 30+ depending on the ice time he receives with Bedard.
The Blackhawks inch closer to the cap floor, while the Sabres make out good with a mid-round pick to relieve some salary and open up another roster spot. A good deal of business for both teams.
Free Agency
That concludes my trades, now onto free agency. Only one real notable signing here.
Sign Carson Soucy (2 years, $2.2 million)
Chris Tanev is my big trade addition, and Carson Soucy is here to round out a very solid defensive group. Soucy piqued my interest around the trade deadline, but Seattle chose to hang onto him for their playoff run, and Adams decided to acquire Riley Stillman. With him now hitting the open market, I'm jumping on the chance.
Soucy brings some additional defensive acumen to this young group, and some more size/physicality to the bottom pair with Lyubushkin. He also helps out with a weakness that the Sabres have on their backend as a whole: zone entry defense.
Soucy's ability to defend Buffalo's own blue line would be another nice asset for the Sabres if they were to bring him in. It's another thing being addressed that could really benefit the squad.
Overall, Soucy would be that perfect veteran bridge defenseman to lock down the third pair while Ryan Johnson develops in the AHL. By the time that deal is up, Johnson will hopefully be ready to step into that role himself.
***Side Note***
Not that it matters for next season, but since it's always fun to guesstimate, I'll jump in on the extension train for fun.
Dahlin - 8x10
Power - 8x8
Mittelstadt 3x4.5
Final Roster
Let's put the pieces of this offseason together. Here's my final 23-man roster for opening night in October.
Unsurprisingly, the forward group stays the same. No, Jiri Kulich does not make the opening night, but that's ok. It's easy to forget, but he's only 19 years old, and guys like Jack Quinn & JJ Peterka didn't cut the squad full-time until they were 21. Taking it slow won't be the worst thing in the world, and he could always get called up due to injuries.
The Sabres themselves should manage just fine with this group. They scored the 3rd-most goals in the league last season, and they're only going to get better with age. I'm ok if they trout out the same group in October.
As for the defensive group, I really like how this turned out. A Power-Tanev paring feels like the perfect match of opposites, and Soucy-Lyubushkin has the ability to be a real problem for other teams.
Gibson is obviously the biggest gamble here, but I think he's being set up for success here, at least with the defensive core that's in front of him.
Is this team playoff-caliber? I think so. What their ceiling will be is determined by is how Gibson and Levi work as a duo. If Gibson recaptures something similar to his 2017-2019 form, and Levi puts in a solid rookie campaign, then this team could be on the cusp of something special.
Here's to hoping the Sabres put something together that tops this. Until then, Go Sabres.
Charts and Data posted are from Evolving-Hockey and CapFriendly.
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