Hello once again. The NHL Draft is this Thursday so we figured let's throw together one last mock offseason that is definitely being released too late. This installment initially included a Kevin Fiala trade and well... we obviously can't do that anymore. So here's another version that we'll try to pump out before any more big moves are made.
In our last release, the goal was to try and build upon the finish to last season without surrounding any notable players (i.e. Mittelstadt or Olofsson). In this version, we're going to allow ourselves to open up to the movement of one or both players. It doesn't mean we decided to trade both, but rather that the chains are off and we are able to do what we please with them.
So let's dive right in.
Pending UFA's / RFA's For the sake of simplicity, we're going to keep the signings the same as the last installment, so if you're interested in knowing what we decided for each specific player, I suggest you head back over to Offseason 1.0.
Here's a quick recap of the most notable moves:
- Olofsson 3x5
- Bryson 1x1
- UPL 3x1.5
To reiterate, the reasonings for each signing are in our last blog.
Trades
Ok, moving onto the fun part. As we said at the start, we will have much more freedom regarding trades and what gets moved out in this version of the mock offseason.
PIT Receives: 2022 1st Round Pick (28th Overall) + 2024 4th Round Pick
BUF Receives: John Marino
It's no secret that the Pittsburgh Penguins are on their last leg when it comes to cup contention. Sidney Crosby isn't getting any younger, and there are numerous reports that possibly one or both of Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang are going to hit free agency and sign with another team.
Obviously, if you're the Penguins, you do not want this to happen. Malkin and Letang have been a part of the franchise for over 15 years and chances are their already closing contention window slams shut when the two veterans hit the open market.
It becomes fairly evident that to have the ability to get both Malkin and Letang back under contract, they are going to need to shed some salary. They have a few players that they can trade away, such as Marcus Pettersson who carries an AAV of $4.025 million, or Brian Dumolin who carries a $4.1 million AAV. One player that they could also shed, that would be of interest to the Sabres, is John Marino.
Marino, who turned 25 last month, is signed with the Penguins for the next five seasons at an AAV of $4.4 million. Being a right-handed defenseman, he immediately becomes a player of interest for the Sabres. Since the only bonafide right-shot defenseman the Sabres currently have on their roster is Henri Jokiharju, they should try and make an attempt to shop for players to even that side out.
Marino has always been more proficient in the defensive zone compared to the offensive zone but has seen a slow decline in play the last three seasons. Overall, he's been solid ever since he entered the league but has never been able to repeat the amazing success he had in his rookie campaign in 2019-20.
In that season, he was one of the best defensive defensemen in the entire league, all the more impressive since his most common partner was an anchor in Jack Johnson. If he were to be able to recapture that playing ability with the Sabres, then it would perfectly complement the offensive upside they have in Dahlin and Power.
Giving the Pens the 28th pick as the main piece seems like fair value. There are not many defensemen in the NHL who are locked down at a reasonable price for as long as he is, all the while being right-handed, so one of the Sabres' 1st round selections are going to have to be given up to Pittsburgh. However, given that his offensive production has never been big, his play declining over the past three years, and the fact that the Sabres are offering to take on all of the $4.4 million, the Pens will be given the lowest 1st, with the 4th in 2024 is tossed in as a bit of a sweetener.
EDM Receives: Casey Mittelstadt + 2022 2nd Round Pick (41st Overall)
BUF Receives: Rights to Jesse Puljujärvi + 2023 3rd Round Pick
After a successful playoff run that ended with elimination by the eventual champs, the Edmonton Oilers will be in a bit of a cap crunch this offseason. They are going to attempt to re-sign players about to hit free agency that were instrumental to their run, such as Evander Kane & Brett Kulak, but will only have a limited amount of cap space to do so. An effect of this cap crunch is when it comes to their RFAs. It is likely that only one of Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujärvi are going to be able to be re-signed, and it seems that Edmonton reportedly prefers Yamamoto of the two.
While Puljujärvi has not officially asked for a trade nor has the team stated that he's 100% going to be dealt, it's clear that the club is willing to listen to offers for him. With that situation, the Sabres have a huge opportunity at hand.
Puljujärvi was the subject of a lot of scrutiny by the Edmonton media this past season, but for no real good reason. He put up spectacular two-way impacts for the entire year but just wasn't able to bury as many chances as he was creating.
Of course, if you're playing with Connor McDavid as much as Puljujärvi did, you want to see more production, but it's more than encouraging that his isolated impacts are among the best in the league. The narrative that he only played well because he was alongside McDavid or Draisaitl is immediately disproven, and chances are any team that takes a chance on him is going to be rewarded.
That's why I'm jumping at the chance right now. The common comparison that's been made is that Puljujärvi is set to become the next Valeri Nichushkin, and it's easy to see why. Just like Puljujärvi is now, Nichushkin was a very undervalued forward who always had stellar defensive impacts, and eventually improved his offensive ones. He was given up on by the Dallas Stars, but the Avalanche gave him a chance and were eventually rewarded. The production didn't come immediately, but this past season was a career year and he exploded for 52 points in 62 games and was instrumental in the Avalanche's Stanley Cup run.
Paired together here is Nichushkin's season before he broke out compared to Puljujärvi's this past season. Puljujärvi already has similar impacts at a younger age than Nichushkin did, so who's to say he's not on the verge of an offensive surge?
As for the player going out, Casey Mittelstadt makes a lot of sense as an option for the Oilers. They've only got about $9 million in cap space to work with (assuming Mike Smith goes on LTIR), and they're going to need cheaper players to fill out the lineup if they want any chance at bringing back the players they want.
Mitts' $2.5 million AAV is very team friendly, and he provides a lot of versatility for them. Being able to play both center and wing allows the Oilers to play him in either the top or bottom-six which is always useful.
In a vacuum, the Sabres likely need to pay Mittelstadt and send a 2nd-round selection to acquire Puljujärvi. However, since Puljujärvi is an RFA, his value is likely going to be a bit depressed, meaning the offer will have to even out a bit. That's why I have a 3rd-round selection coming back from Edmonton. The Sabres do not have a 3rd in 2023, so Edmonton gives us theirs.
I wish Mittelstadt well, but I believe that Puljujärvi could be on the cusp of being one of the best two-way forwards in the league, and that's an opportunity I can't pass up on taking.
Free Agency
Even with those trades, I still have an amount of work to do in free agency.
Jesse Puljujärvi (4-years, $4.5 million)
Now that he is under our control, I'm gonna immediately reward Puljujärvi with a nice deal. Evolving Wild predicts that he's going to receive a four-year deal that's worth about $4.1 million, so I decided to up it a bit to $4.5 million.
If he can turn into the guy he's got the potential to be, then you've got one of the best value contracts in the whole league.
Nico Sturm (1-year, $1.25 million)
It can never hurt to have more center depth in an organization, and the Sabres don't really have a fourth-line center set in stone as of now. Guys like Girgensons, Jankowski, Malone, etc. can all fight for that spot, with Sturm being another guy to look at for that role. The center provides enough of a defensive presence needed for that spot.
Troy Stetcher (1-year, $2 million)
To round out both the defensive top six and the right side, I'm giving Troy Stetcher a one-year deal. He's always been a very solid and steady defenseman, and I feel he'd be a nice addition to this group. Plus, if you remember correctly, Stetcher was Owen Power's partner for the 2021 IIHF World Championships prior to being selected by the Sabres, and they did very well together. So bringing in a guy who's already got developed chemistry to try and help ease Power into the league could be very beneficial.
Darcy Kuemper (3-years, $7.5 million)
Here's the big signing of free agency. Cheap contracts were given to guys like Sturm and Stetcher to round out the forward & defense groups so that there would be enough money to spend on goaltending.
Kuemper is obviously fresh off a Stanley Cup victory, so his talents are not going to be easy to acquire. While he admittedly did have a shaky playoffs, his regular season performance was one of the best in the entire league.
He was fifth in the league in goals saved above expected with 21.0 (per MoneyPuck.com), with a raw save percentage of .921, and five shutouts. For the 57 games he played in the regular season, he was not a byproduct of the Colorado powerhouse, he was legitimately an elite goaltender.
Obviously, if the Sabres were to get him under contract and he were to play up to his past few seasons, it would do wonders for the goaltending situation. Pretty much any goalie on the trade market or in free agency would be (at most) looking to carry a 35-45 game load (MAYBE 50 depending on who it is), but with Kuemper you could be looking at a top talent that could be able to start close to 60 games. This would make easing UPL into the NHL a lot easier, and allow for Craig Anderson to rest much more.
As you would expect, getting someone like Kuemper under contract is not going to be easy to do, especially on a short-term deal. While he may already be 32, Evolving Hockey projects that his most likely contract is going to be in the six-year range, around $6.3 million, and that's something that Adams would obviously steer clear of.
However, if he could coax Kuemper into the idea of taking a short-term deal, it will take a bump in price. Over three years, he's still projected to receive $6.3 million, so I'm giving him a nice raise to $7.5 million. It's pricey, but if he performs, it'll be well worth it.
Roster Building
Alright, let's put all the pieces together.
As with last time, here are some quick bullet points on how I constructed the 23-man roster.
1st line obviously stays intact
Since you have two guys on the 2nd line in Cozens and Quinn that haven't proven themselves defensively yet, Puljujärvi is the perfect guy to add a two-way presence while keeping the line loose offensively
Since Mittelstadt was traded, Krebs now takes the 3rd line center spot fully uncontested (at least to start)
Bjork, Girgensons, Okposo, and Sturm are my 4th line fillers to start the year
While Samuelsson-Dahlin may be the 1st pairing of the future, Marino would be underutilized being placed on the 3rd pairing, so I'm putting him with Dahlin to start
Power and Stetcher attempt to rekindle the chemistry from the World Championships
For pairs that played at least 45 minutes together, Samuelsson-Jokiharju were the sixth highest pair in xGF% on the Sabres this season (per MoneyPuck.com), so I'm giving them an extended look
Three-man rotation in net is solidified; Kuemper hopefully gets to 50 games, and Anderson & UPL split the remaining 32
The addition of Puljujärvi really cements the young forward group and gives them another great defensive player, an area in which Mittelstadt lacks as a center. Marino also hopefully gives them another defensive defenseman, with Stetcher's potential being maximized while playing with Power. If Kuemper can repeat his performance from last season, then this team is definitely on the cusp of something great.
Once again, I don't have Peterka starting on opening night, but that's because I don't have him in anywhere else but the bottom six to start, and I'd rather have him getting top-six minutes in Rochester.
This roster is definitely better than the first mock offseason, but it also should be. I've spent assets in order to speed the rebuild up just a little bit, while also going more big fish hunting with names like Kuemper and Puljujärvi. This roster should be getting a minimum of 85 points, and could be even higher should Kuemper give them .920 goaltending.
Conclusion
Building a roster like this by spending the assets we did is most likely something that's not going to happen. However, at the same time, I don't think the moves are really that out there. Sending Mittelstadt and a 2nd-rounder may seem rich, but you're getting a young player in Puljujärvi back as well; and with the Marino trade, chances are you're hoping that a guy you pick at 28 comes back as a player of Marino's caliber.
It's wishful thinking, but it's fun to think about what the Sabres could do with the numerous assets they've collected over the past few seasons. Can't wait to see what Adams and co. have planned for these next few months.
Go, Sabres!
Charts and Data posted in this article are from JFreshHockey, Evolving-Hockey, Money Puck, Natural Stat Trick, and CapFriendly.