It's been awhile since we've been able to say this without it being shallow, but the Buffalo Sabres might just have the best prospect pool in the entire National Hockey League. Gone are the days where the star power of high first-round picks tip the scale in that regard, the Sabres are legitimately deep at just about every single position and have been seemingly drafting well in the later rounds of the draft.
With the annual Prospect Challenge starting tonight, this may be one of the most stacked groups that the Sabres have ever iced at the event. While guys such as Quinn, Peterka, Power, and Krebs aren't participating (likely due to Samuelsson and Quinn suffering injuries at last year's challenge), the group is still loaded with a ton of high end talent, especially the forward group.
With the state that the pool is currently at, it got me thinking about comparing to previous points in franchise history and how this group stacks up. It wasn't too long ago when the franchise could also say it perhaps had the best prospect core in the league from top to bottom. 2005 no doubt shares a lot of comparisons to today.
We all know what that group was on the brink of as the 2005-06 Sabres went on one of the most memorable runs in Sabres history. However, what made that season so surprising at the time was that there was truly an unknown factor when it came to the youngsters on the team. Most were no older than 22 years old, so what their impact in the league was going to be was a huge question mark. However, we all know how seamless that transition was.
I don't believe that we are on a similar brink (but hey who knows), but it's pretty safe to say that we're on a similar upward trajectory to 2005 currently. So, I thought it would be pretty fun to try and compare the current prospect core to that of 2005, and see if perhaps the core of 2022 might just have a shot at reaching the highs that 2005 did.
So let's take a look.
Forwards:
l 2005 l
- Thomas Vanek (3rd overall, 2003)
- Derek Roy (32nd overall, 2001)
- Jason Pominville (55th overall, 2001)
- Paul Gaustad (220th overall, 2000)
- Drew Stafford (13th overall, 2004)
- Daniel Paille (20th overall, 2002)
- Clarke MacArthur (70th overall, 2003)
l 2022 l
- Jack Quinn (8th overall, 2020)
- Peyton Krebs (17th overall, 2019)
- JJ Peterka (34th overall, 2020)
- Matthew Savoie (9th overall, 2022)
- Isak Rosén (14th overall, 2021)
- Noah Östlund (16th overall, 2022)
- Jiri Kulich (28th overall, 2022)
These are some LOADED forward groups.
It's gonna be hard to compare past and present considering we know what each of the players in 2005 turned into, but we'll try to manage.
There's no doubt that 2005 had its high ceiling talents. Vanek was no doubt the top dog of the group. Taken third overall in one of the most stacked drafts of all time, his ceiling was clear from the start: top line, goal scoring winger. He provided multiple 40 goal seasons in the course of his career with the Sabres and would eventually earn the captaincy, never really losing a step in his entire tenure with the team
Roy and Pominville had lower ceilings, but they were both still great top-six forwards. Roy was on the cusp of being one of the best young centers in the league, but injuries would hinder that, causing him to develop into a more steady forward. Pominville was the pinnacle of consistency throughout his first run with the club, never scoring below 20 goals, and except for his rookie and lockout-shortened season, he was a mainstay in the top-six for years.
Gaustad being able to carve out a solid bottom-six role eventually, after being picked all the way in the seventh round is pretty remarkable. He never had much offensive touch, but was always a steady defensive presence at the bottom of the lineup.
Guys like Clarke MacArthur and Drew Stafford were still a year or two away from finding their spot in the lineup, but as we would soon see later on, they turned into players that could find themselves both in the middle and top of the lineup with the Sabres.
Paille never quite lived up to his draft status, but he still had a very lasting NHL career, consistently being able to find himself in the bottom-six's of his teams.
2022 on the other hand is just an unbelievable pool full of potential.
I threw Krebs into this list because he hasn't had a FULL season of NHL games. He got a very large set of games last year, but still saw time in the AHL before and after his time in the NHL, so I think he still applies to the prospect group. Anyways, Krebs no doubt has the potential to be a great contributor in the forward group. His vision and playmaking ability are unmatched. All he has to do is round out his game in the NHL and he's going to be a contributor moving forward.
Quinn and Peterka are the true leaders of the prospect group that are waiting to make their full jump to the NHL. Both just had unbelievable rookie seasons in the AHL and both hopefully project to be high-end top-six forwards.
Quinn's ceiling is hopefully similar to that of Vanek's, preferably being an elite goalscoring top-line winger for years to come. Despite the drama that surrounded his draft selection in 2020, he's more than turned it around after having the most remarkable rookie season in the AHL in almost 15 years.
Peterka himself is very much a unicorn, and that's not just me saying that. Sabres coaches have been saying for awhile now how unique of a player he is. His dynamic rushing ability coinciding with his offensive prowess makes determining his ceiling that much harder. Perhaps he's just a solid top-six forward, or maybe he can elevate his play to that elite status. Either way, the sky is the limit for JJ.
Isak Rosén is a curious case, as he essentially lost a whole year of development after hardly receiving any ice time in the SHL and eventually getting injured. However, the skill that could be brought out of him is massive. His release is fantastic, and his speed is a great attribute. The battle with him will be adding more elements to his game. His season in Rochester this year will likely be a determining factor in finding out just what the Sabres have in him, but as of now the ceiling is still high.
Then, you've got the big three: Matthew Savoie, Noah Östlund, and Jiri Kulich. All being taken in this year's draft, the three of them all contain a very high ceiling.
Savoie was once perceived as a potential top three pick in the draft class, but only likely fell because of his size. His pure offensive talent is something the Sabres likely haven't had since Jack Eichel and before that Thomas Vanek. He's unbelievably dynamic, and if he can translate to the NHL, he has the potential to be a first line player.
Östlund's upside is tremendous as well. While still behind the curve physical, the amount of talent and smarts he possesses is top notch. Whether or not he eventually makes his way to the NHL will depend on how he rounds out his game and works on his physique.
Kulich might just be the ace of the Sabres' prospect sleeve. Falling all the way to 28th overall, it's pretty clear that he should've gone a lot higher. Carrying an absolute bomb of a shot with fantastic offensive instincts, Kulich is already set to make a name for himself this upcoming season when he plays for the Amerks. It speaks levels to just how good he is and how good he can be that he's already making that leap to the minor leagues.
Forward Conclusion
Despite the amount of star power that the current group has, I feel that I have to give the nod to 2005, albeit a small one. It's pretty rare that pretty much every top prospect in a system pans out or carves out a role in the NHL. Every single one of these guys were able to have long and extensive NHL careers, let alone the star impacts that some of them had. No matter how stacked the current day looks on paper, it's the nature of the sport that a few of them might not make it to the big leagues, which makes 2005 all the more rarer.
If all of the current guys are to hit their ceilings, then yes, they'll have turned out better than the OG group, but until then I still have to give them the edge.
Defense:
l 2005 l
- Andrei Sekera (71st overall, 2004)
- Chris Butler (96th overall, 2005)
- Nathan Paestch (202nd overall, 2003)
- Marc-Andre Gragnani (87th overall, 2005)
l 2022 l
- Owen Power (1st overall, 2021)
- Ryan Johnson (31st overall, 2019)
- Oskari Laaksonen (89th overall, 2017)
- Mats Lindgren (106th overall, 2022)
This comparison would've been much closer had Owen Power not returned to Michigan last season and instead played with the Sabres. However, since he's still a part of the prospect pool for the time being, I'll skip the explanations and say he definitely tips the scales in favor of 2022.
Andrei Sekera was the definitely the cream of the defense crop back in 2005. He was the highest selected out of any of the defenseman and would go on to have the best career, always being a reliable top-four defenseman up until the end.
Unfortunately, there isn't much else to say about the other guys. Chris Butler was able to carve out a nice and short NHL career, but never really amounted to much. Nathan Paetsch always found himself as more of a steady AHL defenseman and Gragnani was also a great point-producer in the AHL, but it just never translated the NHL.
Other than Sekera, there wasn't really much in the prospect pool. Although that was hardly an issue to a team that already had Campbell, Numminen, Tallinder, Lydman, Kalinen, and Jay Mckee dominating the ranks.
Fortunately, that's good news for 2022. As we said, Owen Power really gives the current day group the bigger edge. Standing at 6' 6", Power is projected to be a real life cheat code for the Sabres. A man of that size and stature should not be able to move around and attack the zone like he does. Whereas Rasmus Dahlin is the more flashier, and somewhat unpredictable player when he has the puck, Power is the more intelligent and calculated presence, that is always looking to involve himself in the play, while also routinely finding himself back to defend.
If the rest of his career is to appear anything like his short 8-game stint last season, then the Sabres will add another franchise defenseman to their blue line, which is very unfortunate for the rest of the league.
The other most interesting prospect in the pool is definitely Ryan Johnson. Taken at the end of the first round back in 2019, he still hasn't signed with the Sabres, and time is running out. However, if the Sabres are able to get Johnson under contract before next summer, they'll be given yet another promising prospect to an up and coming pool.
Johnson has been very good in his three seasons at Minnesota, always providing a good two-way presence and being an effective puck rusher. While I'm sure many have begun write him off because of his contract situation and because the defensive core is already very crowded, I hope that it isn't because they believe he's not a very quality prospect, because that just isn't true.
Funny enough, I see a lot of similarities between Johnson and Sekera. Both have been very smooth skating defenders that chip in at both ends of the ice. If Johnson does turn out to be anything like Andre, then the Sabres have yet another core piece on the roster.
As for the other prospects, there isn't a lot to say. Oskari Laaksonen definitely has some offensive talent and is able to be an effective power play quarter back, but he hasn't taken any steps defensively the past few seasons and I'm sure his time with the Sabres is running thin.
And it's way too early to tell with Mats Lindgren. Taken in the fourth round earlier this year, the agile defenseman shows some serious promise offensively, but there's no doubt he needs to make strides defensively. He'll be fun to follow going forward.
Defensive Conclusion
Overall, the star potential of Power, and to lesser extent Johnson, gives the edge to the 2022 group. As long as Power hits his ceiling, or close to it, then this group will have exceeded whatever the 2005 group could've thrown back at them.
Goaltending:
l 2005 l
- Ryan Miller (138th overall, 1999)
l 2022 l
- Devon Levi (212th overall, 2020)
- Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen (54th overall, 2017)
- Erik Portillo (67th overall, 2019)
- Topias Leinonen (41st overall, 2022)
That's right, it's Ryan Miller vs Everyone. Well, unless you wanna hear about the likes of Jeff Weber, Michael Valent, and Adam Dennis, none of whom ever played a game in the NHL.
It's tough to still call a 25-year-old a prospect, but I'm gonna make Miller the exception here, on account that he'd only played 18 games in the NHL to that point (and because it makes this more fun).
There's really no introduction needed here for Miller. He's the all-time leader in wins and games played for a Sabres goaltender, the all-time leader in wins for United States goaltenders, and carries many others honors with him, such as the 2010 Vezina Trophy and 2010 Olympic MVP. On top of all of that, he'll likely soon be making a case to be inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame.
I don't care what you think about Devon Levi, I just can't give the 2022 group the nod, no matter the potential and quantity of the group. Ryan Miller is going to have his jersey put in the rafters early in a few months and it's going to take one heck of a career from one of these guys to get to that level.
However, I do still want to give the group their due.
This season and next are make or break for Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen. He's 23 years old and has been very, very slowly making his way through the ranks of the organization the past five years. After countless injuries, middling stints in Rochester, and an inability to keep his play consistent, it's time for UPL to make his impact known this year. Whether or not he finishes this season as a goalie on the NHL roster, he needs to dominate down in the AHL and be knocking on Eric Comrie or Craig Anderson's door.
As for Erik Portillo, that situation is definitely up in the air, very similar to Ryan Johnson's. He was great in his first full season with Michigan last year, with the door possibly open to sign with the Sabres and play on Rochester next season. However, Portillo opted to return for his senior season, causing flashbacks of Cal Peterson to pop up in fans' minds. While his decision is up in the air, and will be until next spring, the Sabres would be getting a very good prospect should he join the club.
Topias Leinonen is the most recent and most surprising add to this group. It's safe to say that his actual draft position was much higher than what he was perceived to go, as he's had relatively little success in his stints around Finland. However, it's clear that the Sabres are putting a lot of faith in his physical tools. At 18 years of age, Leinonen is already 6' 5" and a whopping 230 lbs. While between the crease he can often rely on this huge frame a bit too much, if he is ever able to figure his game out, then the Sabres could have something special here.
Finally, you've got the crown jewel of the group: Devon Levi. Initially being thought of as a throw-in for the Sam Reinhart trade, Levi has quickly established himself as the goaltender of the future in Buffalo. Of course, it's way too early to tell what he'll project to be, heck, he's not even signed with the Sabres yet, but man this kid is showing all the signs of being something special in the NHL.
After his stellar performance a the 2020 World Juniors, Levi wasn't able to immediately continue his momentum, as his season at Northeastern was canceled due to COVID-19. However, when it finally picked up again last September, Levi had a season for the ages.
On a relatively below average Northeastern squad, Devon Levi went 21-10-1 with a .952 sv%, 1.54 GAA, and 10 shutouts. Despite these insane efforts, Northeastern wasn't able to make past the Regional Semi-Final in the NCAA Tournament, AND it wasn't even enough to be nominated for the Hobey Baker. The latter is one of the primary reasons for why Levi chose to return to Northeastern this coming season, he's hungry to be recognized for just how good he is.
Funny enough, Levi's freshman season at Northeastern stacks up to Ryan Miller's sophomore season at Michigan State. Levi's save percentage from last season (.952) is tied for second all time among NCAA goaltenders in a single season (with Conor Hellebuyck), just edging out Miller's (.950). Plus, the two share the third all-time rank of shutouts in a single season, with each getting ten in their respective seasons.
Goaltender Conclusion
It's fun to compare the two groups, especially Levi and Miller, but until one of the guys from the 2022 group put something close to a hall of fame career, I just can't justify putting them ahead of Ryan Miller.
Final Conclusion
To make a long story short, the groups are pretty close. I gave the edge to the 2005 forward group slightly, but the amount of potential that exists with the 2022 group still makes that case close. The 22' defense group won out over the 05' group just because of Owen Power alone, even with Ryan Johnson as a damn good complimentary piece. Finally, despite the the quantity and potential that the current day group has, the potential hall of famer Ryan Miller just stops me from giving the 2022 group any chance just out of courtesy.
So in conclusion, the question has to be asked, which group are you taking? Like we said at the beginning, it's very difficult to compare the past with the present, especially when the present is such a question mark, but I think a preference can still be chosen.
For me personally, I'm a sucker for potential, so I'm gonna have to side with the 2022 group. The forward group is absolutely stacked in that regard and the defense and goaltending group both have star prospects headlining the class with Power and Levi. Most of these guys could turn out to be busts, but they could also turn out to be studs, there's just no way to know. Nevertheless, 2022's potential just takes the cake for me.
The roster as a whole still has a lot of steps to take if they want to have any success like the 2006 Sabres did, but they've got a lot of the pieces already in place. Moving forward we get to watch the fun part, who exactly is going to be sticking around.
What did you guys think of this? Which prospect group do you prefer? Be sure to let us know on Twitter.
As always, Go Sabres.
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