The 2023 NHL Draft begins on Wednesday, and it is a much different scenario for the Buffalo Sabres than it was the last time around.
Last year, the Sabres had three 1st Round Picks for the first time in 30 years, and used those assets to stack the cupboard of center prospects in the organization. At this year's draft, the Sabres will have one pick in the middle of the 1st round at 13th overall, their latest since selecting Joel Armia 16th overall back in 2011. Hopefully, picking later in the 1st is something that we'll be able to get used to over the coming years.
What it definitely does is open up the conversation a lot more when brainstorming who the Sabres will draft. The middle of the 1st round is where the consensus picks become less and less obvious, and teams' draft boards are less and less similar.
So who are the Sabres going to pick with the 13th overall selection? Let's break down the scenarios we could see happening.
Dream Scenarios
Matvei Michkov, RW/LW
2022-23 Season Stats (KHL): 27GP, 9G - 11A - 20P
Player Comp: Nikita Kucherov
All eyes are going to be glued to the TV on draft night to see who is the team to take the chance on Matvei Michkov. Arguably the only prospect in the class that can challenge Bedard as the most talented, his elite skill and smarts is what has helped him become one of the most prolific draft-eligible scoring talents in recent memory. He's able to put the puck in the net at will, and has made significant strides in his playmaking. He may be small and not especially fast, but what he does have going for him is that he is very shifty, has an edge to his game, and is top notch at evading pressure.
We all know the factors surrounding Michkov heading into draft night. He's locked into his KHL contract until at least 2026, and there are no guarantees what happens afterwards depending on what happens with Russia's current political climate. However, for any team that is willing to wait, he has the potential to be one of the great goal scorers in the NHL when does make his way overseas, and in that scenario it all would have been worth it.
It will be fun to watch what exactly goes down on draft night. It feels as if he's pegged to head to Washington, but there's also been smoke around teams like Philadelphia and Arizona. Plus, maybe something fun happens and another team trades up for him. In any scenario, the team that selects Michkov will be receiving one heck of a prospect.
Zach Benson, LW
2022-23 Season Stats (WHL): 60GP, 36G - 62A - 98P
Player Comp: Mitch Marner
On a Winnipeg Ice team that has been a juggernaut in the WHL, it could be argued that Zach Benson has been the best player on their entire roster the past 2-3 seasons; yes, even over Matthew Savoie. While he doesn't have the explosive acceleration that Savoie is gifted with, his compete, elite vision, and IQ he more than make up for it. To put it bluntly, he has that "dog" that NHL organizations are always salivating over.
His prowess doesn't just stop at his offensive game, however. Benson is just as good defensively thanks to his previously mentioned smarts and compete, which puts him a tier above many of the other offensively gifted players slated to go in the 1st round as well.
Don't let his small stature fool you, despite only standing at 5' 10", he would be a dream for the Sabres (and any other team) to get their hands on, much like they were with Savoie at last year's draft. And just like with Savoie's drop from last year, there may be a scenario where he somehow drops into their lap at 13th overall; I have seen few mock drafts going around where he's available at that pick.
Just one question remains, when Benson's his name is called at the podium, will they say he plays for the Winnipeg Ice or the soon-to-be named Wenatchee-based team Winnipeg is relocating to?
David Reinbacher, D
2022-23 Season Stats (NL): 46GP, 3G - 19A - 22P
Player Comp: Adam Larsson
David Reinbacher is likely going to be the first defenseman off the board on Wednesday night, and I imagine it'll be just outside the top 5 or even in the top 5 itself, and it's for good reason. He's an extremely well rounded defenseman with solid size and skill. There's really not any one thing that he is elite or excels at, but I'd say that highlights just how well-rounded he is given he's the consensus top defenseman.
Reinbacher showed how reliable he could be in the Swiss National league this season, as he played very well in top minutes. He's got good defensive skills (although some refinement could be used) and he moves pucks up the ice well, occasionally jumping into the play.
There's probably not a scenario where he falls to the Sabres at 13, but hey, it's fun to dream, right?
Realistic Options
Oliver Moore, C
2022-23 Season Stats (USHL): 23GP, 8G - 17A - 25P
Player Comp: Dylan Larkin
Now for the more realistic options that the Sabres could legitimately call at 13.
Oliver Moore is fastest player available in the draft. He scored higher than Connor McDavid (yes, that Connor McDavid) at the same age in the BioSteel testing. Along with that explosive speed, Moore adds some serious skill and compete. His shot his sneaky good and he's no slouch in the defensive end, with a knack for some good back checking thanks to previously mentioned speed. His vision and playmaking are decent but could definitely use some improvement.
Moore is probably a bit slept on due to the fact that he centered the second line for the USNTDP this year while the first line of Perreault-Smith-Leonard tore it up. Perhaps he would be generating a little bit more excitement if he'd been given a larger role. We'll find that out next year, as already committed to the University of Minnesota for the 2023-24 season.
Something to mention is that in Bob McKenzie's final prospect rankings (which is based off of a survey with 10 NHL scouts so it tends to be accurate for draft night), he had Oliver Moore at 13. Just something to watch.
Axel Sandin Pellikka, D
2022-23 Season Stats (J20 Nationell): 31GP, 16G - 20A - 36P
Player Comp: Quinn Hughes
Axel Sandin Pellikka is a small but skilled right-handed defenseman who dominated junior competition domestically in Sweden and at WJC/U18s. Where things slowed down was when he was given some time in the SHL, and his dominant play didn't translate as well. He's a good skater and puck handler that can move the puck up the ice well, with his vision and creativity being the highlight of his game.
While us Sabres fans always made fun of the “he needs to get used to the North American ice dimensions” phrase used for some European players here over the years, this actually applies to ASP. When he makes his way overseas, he'll have to get used to having less time and space to show off the creative flair in his game that he is known for.
It does feel like his stock is dropping as of late so being an option at 13th overall is not totally out of the question. For an organization that could use some defensive depth on the right side, Pellikka would be a very nice addition.
Dmitri Simashev, D
2022-23 Season Stats (MHL): 33GP, 1G - 11A - 12P
Player Comp: Simon Edvinsson
Simashev definitely feels like he has a good chance of walking out of draft night with Buffalo. Couple the organization's need for prospects on the defensive end with some legitimate smoke surrounding him, and you have yourself a potential Sabre.
Simashev has some insane tools to his game. Whenever you see a clip of him, you'll see some serious offensive flair shine through, but the catch is that these glimpses just haven't translated to production yet. He didn't register a single point in 18 KHL games and his MHL totals weren't exactly eye-popping either, but maybe you could just argue he was dragged down by his teammates not finishing. He's great skater, and I don't just mean for a 6’4”, 200 pound kid. He's dynamic when escaping pressure and moving pucks up ice, and shows a pretty physical edge.
Overall, Simashev is a pretty raw prospect that will need time to develop the tools he has, and who knows how the Russian factor will play into his arrival in North America, but if the Sabres were to take him 13 and he hits, it could solidify the top 4 for a very long time.
Gabriel Perreault, LW
2022-23 Season Stats (NTDP): 63GP, 53G - 79A - 132P
Player Comp: Jake Guentzel
To put it bluntly, Gabriel Perreault is the best complimentary player in the draft. He broke NTDP scoring records despite being labeled the “least skilled” player on their top line with Ryan Leonard and Will Smith. He's not the fastest or strongest player in the draft, but he has some elite vision and playmaking creativity to help string offensive sequences together.
Some will say that his play with Leonard and Smith helped carry his draft stock, but I would counter that he showed that he can more than keep up and create with higher-skilled players. And for a Sabres roster that is full of these highly skilled forward talents, Perreault would be a welcome sight.
He'll need some work defensively, and will have to hit the weight room over time, but the offensive skill is definitely there to justify taking him at 13th overall.
Colby Barlow, LW
2022-23 Season Stats (CHL): 59GP, 46G - 33A - 79P
Player Comp: Chris Kreider
Colby Barlow is the definition of a player that “has that dog in him”. He plays a very simple game and has the physical tools that should allow him to play up and down a lineup regardless of whether he hits his potential, which is still fairly high.
He's a pretty straight line player, but he drives the net and has a shot that rivals some of the very best prospects in this class, arguably top 5. With that straight line play, he's predictably a very effective forechecker using his high compete and large frame.
Barlow was also named captain of his junior team at the age of 18, so I'd presume that he's a high character, culture guy; which we know the Sabres love.
Matthew Wood, LW/C
2022-23 Season Stats (NCAA): 35GP, 11G - 23A - 34P
Player Comp: Patrik Laine
Matthew Wood has been making the rounds due to the striking (albeit kinda lazy) comparisons to Tage Thompson. Both are big, skilled forwards with a heavy shot that played at UConn. It's inevitable, but I don't really think it's a 1:1 comparison.
Wood himself is a winger who was actually the youngest player in all of college hockey this season. We mentioned his superb shot, but he's also got some good hands and creativity that add to his offensive skillset. They helped him lead UConn in scoring (just under PPG) and helped him shine at the U18s. However, like most raw prospects with the size he possesses, Wood's skating isn't very good and will need a Mattias Samuelsson-esque transformation if he's going to have a career in the NHL.
If the Sabres select him at 13th overall, they'll have added another big forward with all the tools in the world to help him succeed. Just get ready for the endless Tage comparisons that will come along with it.
"Reaches" With High Upside
Quentin Musty, LW
2022-23 Season Stats (OHL): 53GP, 26G - 52A - 78P
Player Comp: Matt Boldy
We all know the narrative surrounding local boy Quentin Musty. The Hamburg native played for the Jr. Sabres a few years ago, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is already a built-in connection with Kevyn Adams.
Musty is a big kid at 6' 2", with lots of skill and late birthday to boot. He's more of a playmaker at heart but can score when needed with his hard and accurate shot; he's got the tools that could turn him into a modern power forward. He's also a creative puck handler and passer, hitting his seams more often than not. Much like Matthew Wood his skating will definitely need a bit of work.
The consensus is that Musty will more likely find his name called in the late 1st round, so the Sabres selecting him at 13th would be likely be looked at as a reach, but the tools are definitely there, and if Adams' familiarity is strong, then Musty could find himself a Sabre.
Andrew Cristall, LW
2022-23 Season Stats (WHL): 54GP, 39G - 56A - 95P
Player Comp: Jeff Skinner
Last up is by far the most polarizing player in the draft, Andrew Cristall. Very much the definition of a boom or bust candidate, he is an extremely skilled playmaker with high end creativity. He leans towards passing, but he's no slouch as a a shooter and is always looking for the high danger plays.
Cristall is a very agile skater, as he's been seen doing the 10-2 Mohawk stride a lot, which is something that his comp Jeff Skinner is known for. However, also like Skinner, his straight line speed doesn't stand out and will need some improvement if he’s going to make it into the league, especially with his size at 5' 10".
Probably not the guy you want to target at 13th overall with some of the other players that will be on the board, but should the Sabres trade down or just wait until the 2nd round, then Cristall may still very well be available.
Closing Thoughts
The Sabres have some interesting options available at 13. Each one of these players has some very attractive upsides and tools, while also some drawbacks that would give any team pause, even the "dream scenario" picks. It will be interesting to see what direction the Sabres go in.
Plus, who knows? Maybe the Sabres end up picking someone not even listed here and totally out of left field. They've made it a habit the past two drafts with selections like Isak Rosén and Noah Östlund.
Either way, Wednesday night should be a fun night to see unfold.
As always, Go Sabres.
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